Virginia vs Wake Forest Odds, Pick for Saturday

In some ways, this battle of ACC schools feels like two programs passing each other as one ascends and the other leaves the spotlight.

Wake Forest, which hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game since 2009, boasts its best team in more than a decade, thanks to the rebuild by third-year coach Steve Forbes. Virginia, meanwhile, spent the 2010s as one of the best programs in the sport, though with every passing game, the Cavaliers time atop the mountain is starting to seem further and further away.

As the Demon Deacons and Cavaliers meet on Saturday, who is positioned to pick up a key resume-building win?

Virginia is a program in an interesting spot. The Hoos' days of punching with the elite teams atop the ACC feel like a thing of the past. After six seasons finishing 12th or better by KenPom, Virginia has regressed and has not won an NCAA Tournament game since the 2019 National Championship.

The current iteration of the Cavaliers fits right in with Tony Bennett's last few teams, sitting firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. BracketMatrix slots Virginia as the fifth team out of its current tournament field projection, though the ACC schedule certainly gives Virginia plenty of chances to build a resume. That's welcome news to these Hoos, who currently only have one win over a team projected in the NCAA Tournament field, a victory over Texas A&M at the comfy confines of Virginia's home gym.

The bright side comes via a youth movement on the roster. Bennett starts three sophomores and brings freshmen Leon Bond and Elijah Gertrude off the bench to contribute. Those young players pitch in to help seniors Reece Beekman and Jacob Groves. The resulting mix is a great defensive team, highlighted by elite stopper Ryan Dunn, but a flat, listless offensive attack.

Virginia is still playing as slow as ever, yet no longer has the shooters or playmakers dotting the perimeter to take advantage of that patience. Isaac McKneely and Groves can space the floor with their outside shooting, but the rest of the roster has combined to make just 28 percent from long range. Without chasing offensive rebounds, which Bennett teams rarely do, scoring has been an uphill battle.

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I am happily driving the Wake Forest bandwagon. I'm holding a futures ticket for the Deacons to win the ACC regular-season title (+900), and Steve Forbes has built a team capable of making a deep run this March.

This roster is built upon a "four-headed monster" scoring machine that can attack the weakness of any defense. Kevin "Boopie" Miller is a creator with the ball in his hands. Cameron Hildreth is one of the best shooters in college basketball. Andrew Carr is an inside-out big man to attack mismatches. And most importantly, Gonzaga transfer Hunter Sallis looks like a true star, leading the ACC in minutes per game while dropping 17 points per night.

The Demon Deacons' last outing, a trip to Tallahassee to face Florida State, tossed a little cold water on my excitement about Wake. The Seminoles did make more than half of their 3-point attempts, fueled by one of the more underrated home court atmospheres in college hoops.

The more concerning issue from that game came on Wake's offensive possessions, where the Deacs had a season high 20 turnovers. Generally, Wake has protected the ball well this season, so one performance against a team with a swarming defense shouldn't re-set our offensive expectations for the Deacs, especially now playing a much more conservative defensive in Virginia.

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I am generally very high on this Wake Forest team, so maybe take my pick with a half grain of salt. With that being said, this would be Virginia's best win of the season, by a long shot.

The previous best win on the Hoos' resume is a neutral-site decision over Florida in early November, when the Gators didn't yet have the services of Zyon Pullin and his 15 points per game. In fact, this would be Virginia's first true road win of the season.

The Cavaliers have been atrocious in three true roadies so far this season, losing by an average of 20 points. None of those games came against juggernauts either, all ranking 50th or worse by KenPom. Factoring the spread makes those losses look even worse — Virginia is 0-3 ATS in those games, missing the spread by an average of 22 points.

Over the last two seasons, Virginia is 2-11-1 ATS in true road outings. Wake is the better team and playing in the comfort of home after a tough road loss, so let's trust them to cover.

Pick: Wake Forest -4.5 (Play to -6.5)

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