Monday College Basketball Odds & Picks: Our Staff’s 4 Best Bets, Including Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech, Oregon vs. USC & More (Feb. 22)
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: USC Trojans men’s basketball team.
- Monday's college basketball slate is full of low-key and high-profile matchups acroww the board.
- Our staff broke down four of those games, ranging from Presbyterian vs. Charleston Southern to Oregon vs. USC and Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech.
- Check out each individual pick complete with full betting analysis for each game below.
We are one week closer to conference tournament season, which means games are starting to take on a whole new meaning.
Luckily, there’s still betting value all over the place.
Our staff delivered four games as their favorite bets of the day, ranging from under-the-radar games like Presbyterian vs. Charleston Southern to high-profile games such as Oregon vs. USC and Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech.
Check out the full analysis and picks for all four games, and feel free to navigate to any game by using the table below.
College Basketball Odds & Picks
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Presbyterian vs. Charleston Southern
By Mike Randle
Presbyterian has played six of its past nine games to the under, but I’m backing the over in this spot against Charleston Southern.
The Blue Hose have scored 75 or more points in two of the past four games against a Buccaneers team that plays at the 121st-fastest tempo in college basketball.
Charleston Southern ranks near the bottom in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, and defensive rebounding percentage.
Presbyterian is also last in conference play in offensive turnover percentage while ranking first in forced turnovers. This should create a ton of scoring opportunities in a game that was just scheduled by the Big South Conference.
I expect strong performances from Blue Hose leading scorer Rayshon Harrison (16.7 PPG) and Buccaneers top performer Phlandrous Fleming (19.2 PPG) in a game that will be more up-tempo due to Presbyterian’s recent scoring efficiency.
Oklahoma State vs. #18 Texas Tech
Texas Tech travels to Stillwater to face off against Oklahoma State Monday night.
These two teams battled to begin 2021 in what was an Oklahoma State overtime road victory by a score of 82-77.
Cade Cunningham, who averages 18.6 points, really struggled in that game, shooting just 3-for-12 and scoring 13 points. Mac McClung was the leading scorer for the game, putting in 21 points for the Red Raiders.
Those roles should reverse in this matchup.
Cunningham is a 6-foot-8 guard who many have projected as the No. 1 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. McClung is just 6-foot-2, and although he frustrated Cunningham in the first matchup, lightning won’t strike twice.
Junior guard Isaac Likekele could also be coming back, and he scored 17 points against Texas Tech in the first game.
Oklahoma State has been terrific at home this year, averaging 77.5 points per game. It has only lost by 3 or more points at home once this year, an 81-66 loss to the infamous Baylor Bears.
While they have an explosive offense with weapons all over the floor, the Cowboys’ defense is what has been winning them ball games. In conference games, Oklahoma State is the No. 1 defense in effective field goal % and 3-point percentage.
Teams make just 30.6% of their 3-point attempts against the Cowboys. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is the worst team in the Big 12 at defending the 3-ball, allowing opponents to convert on an astounding 40.2% of 3-point shots.
Cunningham is poised to have a big game on national TV tonight, and I’m taking the home dog in a game I think it will win outright.
Oregon vs. #19 USC
The Trojans absolutely dominate their opponents in the paint.
USC is shooting a cool 52% from 2-point range and 62.5% on shot attempts at the rim, according to Hoop-Math.
The reason It’s so good in the paint is twofold: 1) The Trojans are the tallest team in the country, and 2) They have one of the best freshmen in the country in Evan Mobley, who is averaging 16.6 points and nine rebounds per game.
USC is also the best offensive rebounding team in the Pac-12, grabbing them at a 35.2% rate in conference play, per KenPom. Again, its height plays a huge role there.
The Trojans will have a big height advantage over Oregon on Monday as well by almost two inches on average. Oregon is near the bottom of the Pac-12 when it comes to defensive rebounding, so the Trojans should have plenty of second-chance opportunities tonight.
Oregon has been getting by with one of its best players, N’Faly Dante, on the sidelines for the rest of the season.
Offensively, the Ducks have been average, putting up 1.05 points per possession, which is only fifth-best in the Pac-12. Oregon’s offense is somewhat reliant on shooting a high percentage from 3-point range as almost 40% of its field goal attempts come from behind the arc.
It can justify it, too, by shooting over 36% from deep in conference play. To beat USC the Ducks will need to make a high percentage from 3 because it’s a death sentence trying to score inside against the Trojans.
USC allows a conference-low 44.8% from 2-point range and also has the highest block rate in the Pac-12. So, unless Oregon lights them up from beyond the arc, I have a hard time seeing how they’re going to hang with the Trojans.
I have USC projected at -6.78 favorites at home, so I do think there’s some value on it at -4.
New Mexico vs. Air Force
It can be difficult to root for empty trips, constant bricks and poor foul shooting, but when you’re backing an under between two teams that love to play at a glacial pace, there is a certain beauty to it.
New Mexico mixes the nation’s 228th pace with truly horrid shooting. Anywhere the Lobos hoist up a shot — be it from the line (345th), inside the arc (328th) or from downtown (346th) — there’s a great chance it’s not going in.
You can make an argument that this is the worst offense playing on Monday, and you wouldn’t hear a peep out of me.
And while Air Force is decidedly better than New Mexico on the offensive end (Off. Eff. 288th vs. 340th), it brings something substantial to this under bet: the nation’s third-slowest pace.
Joe Scott, now in his second stint as the AF head coach, loves to play slow. In his last head coaching stop at Denver, Scott’s teams cashed unders at a 61% clip in his final three seasons. So, this is a confirmed trend for the Princeton offense disciple.
Locking horns with a Lobos team that has hit eight of its last 11 unders makes for a perfect match in this spot.
FoxBet is offering 56.5 as the first-half total with under juiced up to +115. Unsurprisingly these are two of the worst first-half offenses in the country, so I’ll be on the under in the first 20 minutes as well.
Pick: Under 125.5