Indiana vs. Providence Odds

Indiana and Providence both enter the 2020-21 season trying to build off their strong finish to last year’s shortened college basketball season.

The Hoosiers had reached 20 wins for the first time since 2016, and Providence ended on a six-game winning streak, including victories over Seton Hall and Villanova. These two evenly-matched teams will meet in the relocated Maui Invitational in Asheville, North Carolina, on Monday afternoon. What type of game should we expect in this big non-conference matchup?

Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana brings a veteran team with four returning starters, highlighted by first-team All-Big Ten performer Trayce Jackson-Davis. After flirting with the NBA Draft, Jackson-Davis returned to solidify his profile as a future lottery pick. He led the Hoosiers in scoring (13.5), rebounding (8.4), and blocks (1.8) per game.  Jackson-Davis got off to a fine start with 26 points and 11 rebounds (including seven offensive) in the Hoosiers' 89-59 opening win over Tennessee Tech. That came after he produced 11 double-doubles as a freshman.

He is joined in the frontcourt by junior forward Race Thompson (3.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and 6-foot-11 senior Joey Brunk (6.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg). Thompson was limited against Tennessee Tech after picking up three fouls in just over eight minutes in the first half. Brunk missed the game entirely with a back injury but is expected to play against Providence.

Head coach Archie Miller’s main concern against the Maui Invitational field is rebounding, making Thompson and Brunk critically important.

Miller’s guard rotation is very deep, with senior Al Durham, junior Rob Phinisee, and sophomore Armaan Franklin earning the start against Tennessee Tech. Phinisee led the way with 12 points, five rebounds, and two assists, while shooting 2-of-3 from 3-point range.

The most impressive frosh performances were Trey Galloway, who put up 13 points, and five-star freshman Khristian Lander, who added five points and two assists.

The foundation of any Miller-coached team will be defense, and the Hoosiers finished 26th last year in adjusted defensive efficiency. The concern will be generating offense, which will be centered around Jackson-Davis.

Durham (38.3%) and Phinisee (33.3%) can space the floor, but Galloway, Lander, and freshman Anthony Leal will need to contribute to keep the defense from focusing exclusively on Jackson-Davis.

A major concern for Indiana is free-throw shooting. The Hoosiers ranked 271st last year with just a 67.9% mark from the charity stripe. In their opening win over Tennessee Tech, they shot just 45.5% (10-of-22) from the foul line.

Providence Friars

Providence is a contender to win the Big East Conference but will need to replace a ton of scoring in Alpha Diallo (14.1 ppg), Luwane Pipkins (10.8 ppg), and Maliek White (7.8 ppg). Junior guard David Duke took the scoring mantle with 18 points (3-of-4 from 3), seven rebounds, and four assists in the Friars’ big 97-56 opening win over Fairfield.

The interior is covered by 6-foot-10, 260-pound big Nate Watson who notched a double-double (23 points, 10 rebounds) in the opener. He will need to avoid foul trouble and provide superior defense against Jackson-Davis.

Sophomore 6-foot-8 forward Greg Gantt is a superior athlete who is an interior presence on both ends of the floor. He was limited with foul trouble against Fairfield, posting just five points and two rebounds.

The Friars defense was operating at a season-high level in efficiency at year's end. Providence ranked first in the Big East in adjusted-defensive efficiency and 3-point defense, per KenPom. Free-throw shooting is also a concern for the Friars, as they ranked just 233rd last year at 69.4%.

Junior guard A.J. Reeves provides strong on-ball defense and a willingness to attack from beyond the arc. Reeves tallied 14 points and attempted seven shots from deep in Providence's opening win.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a battle between two teams that are mirror images of each other. Providence and Indiana both rely on interior scoring balanced by streaky 3-point shooting on offense, along with hard-nosed defense as their foundation.

In an evenly matched game at a neutral site location, I'm taking the under as the best play. Both teams operate at an average to below-average pace, ranking 171st or worse in tempo last season. Poor free-throw shooting by both teams also supports a lower-scoring narrative.

I'm expecting a close opening battle at the Maui Invitational, with both squads limiting second-chance points with stellar defensive rebounding.

This line opened at 140 and has already started climbing to 140.5. I would wait to see if that trend continues and take it at the highest point.

Pick: Under 140.5 (down to 140).