Arizona State vs Washington State Odds, Picks: 2 Ways to Bet
Pictured: Mouhamed Gueye #35 of the Washington State Cougars.(Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images)
Arizona State vs. Washington State Odds
|Arizona State Odds|
-110o / -110u
|Washington State Odds|
-110o / -110u
Arizona State is in a difficult spot on a short turnaround after a Thursday night overtime loss to Washington in Seattle. The Sun Devils’ late heroics weren’t enough to pull off the comeback in the eventual three-point defeat, and now Arizona State will head across the state to Pullman to take on Washington State.
The Cougars went toe-to-toe with Arizona for 40 full minutes and ultimately lost by five because they failed to make enough perimeter shots and TJ Bamba didn’t score until the final five minutes of the game. It was still an encouraging performance from Kyle Smith’s squad and the Cougars will be looking for revenge on Arizona State as the Sun Devils beat them in Tempe earlier this month.
It’s been a season of what-ifs for Washington State after close losses and injuries have disrupted any rhythm they’ve attempted to put together. The hopes of an at-large bid are nearing zero.
This total is deflated a bit after both sides missed everything they took on Thursday night in their respective games.
The Cougars remain undervalued as the better team in a great home spot against a vulnerable opponent on short rest.
Arizona State is an offense that loves to attack downhill and get to the rim as much as possible. The Sun Devils don’t have much in terms of perimeter shooting. When the offense isn’t working, they settle for bad shots from the outside, as they did in the loss at Washington against the Huskies zone defense. At one point, the Sun Devils made just one of 23 shot attempts as the Huskies turned that game around in the first half.
It’s hard to see the Sun Devils getting much from the perimeter in this matchup as the Cougars are quite good at contesting shots from the outside. The Cougars are 45th in the country in defense against 3s, per ShotQuality, meaning they don’t allow high quality perimeter looks. Arizona State has made 31.9% of its attempts from 3 this season, which is 277th in the country.
The offense is much better at finishing at the rim, but that’s pretty difficult to do in the halfcourt against Washington State. The Sun Devils will absolutely find success in transition and that’s how they’ll get most of their offense in this game. But if it’s close late and the Sun Devils need to go to the halfcourt, the offense will be severely tested.
Arizona State is elite at attacking the rim, but will have to deal with the interior presence of Mouhamed Gueye. Washington State has the length and size to disrupt the driving lanes and rim attacks in this game.
Washington State’s post-up offense through Gueye leaves a lot to be desired. The Cougars are not particularly efficient and don’t generate a ton of good looks, but Gueye gets a lot of attention because of his size. That attention opens up space for the 3-point shooters.
With Bamba in the lineup, the Cougars have four guys who shoot at least 36% from beyond the arc. They generate a ton of open 3-point catch-and-shoot looks. It’s hard to score at the rim against Arizona State, but there’s room to exploit the Sun Devils on the perimeter.
The Sun Devils are right around the national average in terms of guarding the 3-point line. They’re also average in percentage of unguarded catch-and-shoot looks.
Even though the Cougars lost the first meeting in Tempe by six, the SQ projected score suggested they generated better looks. The Sun Devils made a lot of contested mid-range looks, shots they take far too often to be a reliably efficient offense.
Arizona State vs. Washington State Betting Pick
The Cougars middling transition defense is the key to success for Arizona State’s offense. Washington State will turn it over and Arizona State is definitely good for one or two good scoring runs from leak outs and attacking the rim in space.
But this is a great matchup for the Cougars offense too, and an even better situational spot. Even if this season hasn’t gone according to plan, you can’t question Washington State’s effort after it took Arizona to the brink on Thursday — and beat the Wildcats a few weeks ago in Tucson.
Arizona State’s defense has holes and can be exploited by a good perimeter shooting team. Washington State has positive regression coming offensively based on the quality of shots it gets and I’m expecting plenty of offensive efficiency for the Cougars in a revenge win.
Pick: Washington State -3.5 (Or Better) and Over 131.5 (Or Better)
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