College Basketball Betting Guide for Indiana vs Michigan State
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana)
Indiana vs Michigan State Odds
-115o / -105u
|Michigan State Odds|
-115o / -105u
Outside of losses on the road to Maryland and Northwestern — two likely NCAA tournament teams — the Indiana Hoosiers have been in cruise control.
They notched a top-25 KenPom win over Illinois on Saturday and look to further their resume with a victory against Michigan State on the road on Tuesday.
MSU is on the opposite wavelength right now. It beat Maryland, Iowa and Rutgers, but it’s 4-6 in its last 10 Big Ten games.
That said, the Spartans are through the toughest part of their schedule. Indiana, however, is the cherry on top of an already tough stretch.
Given their inside offensive capabilities, the Hoosiers should win a tight one in East Lansing.
The Hoosiers almost play everything through Trayce Jackson-Davis, and rightfully so.
They have the 351st-ranked 3-point attempt rate in the country and nearly 60% of their total points have come from inside the arc.
Two of their three most effective sets come when TJD has the ball in his hands, per ShotQuality.
The Hoosiers rank 11th in points per possession (PPP) at the rim at 1.27. MSU ranks 95th in defending shots at the rim (1.14 PPP), so expect the Hoosiers to play their usual game through TJD on the interior.
When needed, the Hoosiers can hit 3s, too. They shoot 38% from outside, so they can do damage when called upon.
In particular, Miller Kopp, Jalen Hood-Schifino and Tamar Bates are all shooting above 38% from distance.
MSU ranks 68th in PPP on off-the-dribble 3s, but it’s even more lackluster on catch-and-shoot 3s, permitting 1.04 PPP (309th in the country).
The Hoosiers should get whatever shots they choose.
MSU ranks 85th in Rim & 3 Rate, so the shots Indiana usually takes will be open a majority of the time.
MSU struggles immensely on the glass. Per ShotQuality, it ranks 285th in rebounding percentage.
Indiana is not much better at 155th, but it’s at least around NCAA average.
Per KenPom, Indiana ranks fifth in offensive rebounding and eighth in defensive rebounding, while the Spartans rank ninth and fourth in Big Ten play, respectively.
MSU needs to cut into that offensive rebounding margin or TJD will have a field day.
That happened the last time these two teams faced off, as he hauled in five offensive boards and 10 defensive boards in a 13-point route of the Spartans.
MSU is also extremely inefficient on 2s. As a unit, it ranks only 301st in 3-point attempt rate, but it’s only hitting 47.8% of its 2-pointers.
In contrast, the Spartans are hitting 37% of their 3s, so their shot selection is horrid. Per ShotQuality, they rank 351st in shot selection.
They rank 361st in Rim & 3 Rate and 192nd in Open 3 Rate, so it’s astonishing that 37% of their deep balls are sinking.
Photo by CBB Analytics
On defense, the Hoosiers rank 50th and 60th in PPP on catch-and-shoot 3s and off-the-dribble 3s, respectively. This means they should limit the Spartans more often than not.
Joey Hauser, Tyson Walker and Jaden Akins all shoot over 38% from 3-point range, so the Spartans will need a ton of production out of these three.
Indiana vs Michigan State Betting Pick
TJD is going to be a dominant force in this game, and Indiana can actually shoot the 3 much better than MSU can.
The Hoosiers are more efficient when it comes to shot selection and they will pull down more boards.
The Spartans can eat into put-back opportunities the Hoosiers may have, but this should be a solid road win for Indiana based on offensive production alone.
Take the Hoosiers from +2.5 (-114), and play them to a PK (-110).
Pick: Indiana +2.5 (Play to PK)
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