NCAAB Betting Guide for Kansas vs TCU
Pictured: Ernest Udeh Jr. #23 of the Kansas Jayhawks celebrates with teammates. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Kansas vs. TCU Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
The Kansas Jayhawks will look to stay tied with Texas at the top of the Big-12 standings as they travel to Fort Worth, Texas to take on a surging TCU squad.
The Horned Frogs are coming off a 100-75 win against Oklahoma State on Saturday. That contest marked the return of point guard Mike Miles, whose impact was immediately felt as he put up 15 points in 35 minutes of action.
This will be a revenge spot for Bill Self’s Jayhawks as they were dominated 83-60 by TCU in Allen Fieldhouse on Jan. 21.
Since that loss, Kansas has won six of its past eight games, including four in a row in conference play. The Jayhawks’ resilience was put on full display Saturday when they came back from a 40-23 first-half deficit to beat Baylor by 16-points.
So, who will win Monday? Let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Kansas vs. TCU.
The Kansas Jayhawks have their sights set on consecutive national championships and a Big-12 regular season title.
The Jayhawks are one of the most balanced teams in college basketball, ranking 15th nationally in Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
On the offensive end, the Jayhawks have been rolling and are averaging 85 points in their past four games. The offense scores 60.9% of its points off an assist, the 14th-highest rate in the country.
The high assist rate allows the Jayhawks to get high-percentage looks on the interior, where Kansas scores 54.7% of its points.
Although these numbers are impressive, the Jayhawks will have their work cut out for them against a TCU team excelling at protecting the rim. The Horned Frogs rank 28th nationally in block percentage at 12.7%.
This ability to generate blocks at the rim has resulted in TCU’s defense ranking 37th nationally in near-proximity field-goal percentage. In other words, TCU’s opponents connect on just 53.85% of their layups, dunks and tip-ins.
A significant portion of this rim protection can be attributed to center Eddie Lampkin, who has been hindered by injuries since Jan. 24th. Lampkin has played just 62 total minutes in TCU’s past eight games.
If Lampkin is once again limited, look for Kansas to have plenty of success on the offensive end.
TCU has lost five of its past six games due to the injury status of key contributors, Miles and Lampkin.
With Miles’ return lineup on Saturday, TCU was able to explode for 100 points against an Oklahoma State defense that ranks 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
However, Kansas’s defense will be better equipped to slow-down the Horned Frogs in a revenge spot.
Defensively, Kansas has been masterful at forcing teams into turnovers and low-percentage perimeter looks. The Jayhawks rank 18th nationally in steal percentage, resulting in teams scoring just 45.3% of their points off an assist.
This on-ball pressure will be crucial against Miles and a TCU offense scoring 59% of its points off an assist. These assists have allowed the Horned Frogs to score 60.5% of their points on the interior, the sixth-highest rate in the country. Defensively, Kansas is allowing opponents to score just 50.2% of their points from 2-point range.
Another area the Horned Frogs have relied on for offensive success is second-chance opportunities. TCU ranks 5th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage and boasts an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.4%.
The Jayhawks defense ranks inside the top 60 in second-chance conversion percentage allowed, giving up an offensive rebounding percentage of just 28.4%.
Combine these numbers with Lampkin’s uncertain health status and you get a recipe for trouble for TCU’s offense.
Kansas vs. TCU Betting Pick
Even with TCU’s impressive performance on Saturday, this is a great spot to back Self and the Jayhawks.
Look for Kansas to attack the interior on both ends of the floor and force TCU into low-percentage looks from the perimeter. The Horned Frogs are shooting just 29.2% from outside (354th nationally).
Given the recent form of Lampkin and the revenge spot for Kansas, I will gladly take the points with the road Jayhawks.
Pick: Kansas +2 Or Better
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