Providence vs Villanova College Basketball Odds, Picks, Prediction
Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Caleb Daniels (Villanova)
Providence vs. Villanova Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Providence and Villanova will face off on Sunday afternoon for the first time this season. Both teams have strung together back-to-back wins.
For the visiting Friars, this is an opportunity to keep pace with Xavier at the top of the Big East standings. Providence currently sits one game back of the Musketeers in a tie for second with Marquette.
More importantly, this is a chance for Kyle Neptune and Villanova to grab a marquee win on their home floor. The Wildcats are 6-2 at home this season, with notable wins over St. John’s and Oklahoma.
To pick which team will take advantage of this opportunity, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Providence vs. Villanova.
Ed Cooley and the Providence Friars have had a memorable season, led by sophomore forward Bryce Hopkins. The Kentucky transfer has put himself firmly in the Big East Player of the Year conversation by averaging 16.5 points and 9.1 rebounds per game.
Hopkins is a master at getting to the rim and creating contact, drawing 5.5 fouls per game.
Bryce Hopkins records his 3rd straight double-double and is looking like a lock for Big East player of the year 👀🔥 @BryceHopkins pic.twitter.com/tZNHTsCud4
— B/R Hoops (@brhoops) January 21, 2023
Even given Hopkins’ recent success, Villanova has the depth in the frontcourt to be able to give him some problems. The Wildcats will throw out a combination of Cam Whitmore, Brandon Slater and — at times — Caleb Daniels to prevent Hopkins and the Friars’ interior success.
This Villanova frontcourt has allowed its opponents to score just 48.2% of their points from the interior (272nd nationally).
Another area where the Friars may be limited is in their ability to get to the free-throw line. Providence gets 22.2% of its points from the charity stripe, the 19th-highest rate in the nation.
However, Villanova has been disciplined on the defensive end, allowing its opponents to score 16.4% of their points from the free-throw line.
The last area Providence excels in is creating second chances. The Friars grab offensive rebounds on 37.7% of shots, the sixth-highest rate in the country.
Again, Villanova has been great at limiting these second chances, allowing offensive rebounds on just 26.3% of its opponents’ shots.
Overall, Villanova has the personnel and defensive philosophy to be able to limit the Friars on the offensive end.
This Villanova team has struggled to get over the hump, winning only three games against teams inside the top 100. However, the Wildcats have been at their best at home, boasting a 6-2 record.
In addition, Villanova’s limited rotation will have had a full nine days off to give Providence its best effort. The Wildcats rank 271st nationally in bench minutes.
This extra time off has also allowed for sophomore guard Jordan Longino to return to practice and potentially get back in the rotation.
Offensively, the Wildcats have relied on their outside shooting to win games. Villanova takes the seventh-most 3-point attempts in the country. This has resulted in 37.1% of the Wildcats’ total points coming from beyond the arc.
Against Providence, the Wildcats will be able to develop a more balanced offensive attack by creating penetration. The Friars are giving up 56.9% of their points on the interior, the 23rd-highest rate in the country.
Leading this interior attack for Villanova will be do-it-all guard Daniels. The 6-foot-4 senior is averaging a team-high 16.6 points per game through his ability to create in the post.
Caleb Daniels to Eric Dixon
College basketball is back! pic.twitter.com/Wn2O9plI8z
— Ryan Cassidy (@ryancassidycbb) November 7, 2022
If Villanova is able to establish this interior attack, this will open up opportunities from the perimeter, where the Wildcats are already comfortable.
Providence vs. Villanova Betting Pick
Backing Villanova against top-100 competition has not been profitable this season.
That being said, I believe there is value with the home underdog Wildcats in this spot.
Villanova has the size and strength on defense to be able to match up with Hopkins and a Friars offense that thrives on getting to the rim.
On the other end, Providence will allow Daniels and Villanova to create penetration, opening up quality shots from the perimeter.
Look for a Villanova team that has been at its best on its home floor to give Providence its best effort after a nine-day break.
Pick: Villanova -2 or Better
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