San Diego vs Gonzaga Betting Odds & Picks: Points Galore in Spokane
Photo by William Mancebo/Getty Images. Pictured: Mark Few (Gonzaga)
San Diego vs Gonzaga Odds
|San Diego Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
San Diego travels to take on a Gonzaga team on Thursday night that’s very much still in the hunt for the WCC regular season title.
With just three games left on its schedule — including a Feb. 25 showdown with Saint Mary’s — Gonzaga sits just one game back of the Gaels in the WCC standings at 12-2.
On the other side, Steve Lavin’s first season at the helm for San Diego has been a forgettable one, as the Toreros sit at just 4-10 in WCC play, ahead of only Pepperdine.
To determine if Gonzaga will stay on track with Saint Mary’s at the top of the WCC standings, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for San Diego vs. Gonzaga.
The Lavin experiment at San Diego has not gone as planned, as the Toreros have won just one game against a team inside the top 100. This victory came on Dec. 31 against San Francisco.
Since this win, San Diego has won just three of 12 contests.
Much of the struggles for the Toreros have been the result of their poor play on the defensive end.
Defensively, San Diego ranks 333rd in the country in Adjusted Efficiency, giving up 80.7 points per game, which is the ninth-highest average in all of college basketball.
San Diego’s opponents have been scoring at will, averaging 40.7% from 3-point range and 55.4% from inside the arc. Both of these rate are outside the top-340 nationally.
These more than abysmal defensive numbers will be given the ultimate test, as San Diego matches up with the most efficient offense in the country, Gonzaga.
Offensively, Gonzaga ranks first nationally in Adjusted Efficiency, resulting in an average of 86.3 points per game, which is also the highest rate in college basketball.
The Bulldogs — and superstar center Drew Timme — have been masterful at finding high-percentage looks on the interior. Gonzaga ranks inside the top-six nationally in mid-range field goal percentage, near-proximity percentage and overall field goal percentage.
These types of numbers have resulted in the Gonzaga scoring 56.8% of its points from 2-point range, the 31st-highest rate in the country.
This will be a long night for San Diego’s defense.
Mark Few and the Bulldogs have built another respectable season in West Coast Conference play. The Bulldogs have won four of their last five games, with their only loss coming against Saint Mary’s.
With a rematch versus the Gaels on the horizon, Gonzaga will need to handle its business on Thursday night against a struggling San Diego team.
This outcome will be determined for Gonzaga on the defensive end of the floor. So far this season, defense has been a weakness for the Zags in relation to their highly-effective offense.
The Bulldogs rank 87th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, giving up 75.4 points per game (295th nationally).
These numbers can be attributed to a perimeter defense that hasn’t been up to Gonzaga’s normal standards. The Bulldogs are allowing the third-most 3-point attempts per game, resulting in 33.2% of their opponents’ points.
This inability to guard the perimeter will be a welcomed site for a San Diego team desperately seeking outside shooting progression. The Toreros are scoring just 30.1% of their points from beyond the arc.
One of the few defensive areas Gonzaga has thrived on is its ability to create turnovers. The Bulldogs have the highest defensive turnover percentage in the country at 19.2%.
Unfortunately, this is one of the few areas San Diego has been disciplined in this season. The Toreros have the third-lowest offensive turnover percentage in the country at 15.9%
Look for San Diego to have some success on the offensive end of the floor against Gonzaga’s vulnerable defensive unit.
San Diego vs Gonzaga Betting Pick
With a matchup against Saint Mary’s on the horizon, this is an interesting spot for Gonzaga.
Even with this matchup for the conference title looming, I still believe we’ll get the best effort from the Bulldogs on the offensive end of the floor.
It also can’t hurt that Gonzaga is matched up with one of the worst statistical defenses in all of college basketball.
On the other end, I expect a San Diego offense that ranks fourth in the WCC in Adjusted Efficiency to give its best effort at keeping up with the blistering offensive pace of Gonzaga.
With all that being said, the best investment in this matchup is on the over. These two teams are relying on their offensive units to mask their shortcomings on the defensive end.
Pick: Over 164.5 (Play to 167.5)
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