College Basketball Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions for Maryland vs. Miami (Sunday, Nov. 20)
Pictured: Maryland Terrapins forward Donta Scott. (Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
- Maryland and Miami go head-to-head in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Championship on Sunday.
- Both teams are undefeated on the young season, but that will have to change.
- Charlie Disturco previews the game and shares his best bet below.
Maryland vs. Miami Odds
Two undefeated teams meet in the championship of the Hall of Fame Tip-Off on Sunday afternoon as Maryland takes on Miami.
Both teams went through plenty of change in the offseason, highlighted by the Terps’ coaching change as they brought over Kevin Willard from Seton Hall. Maryland enters 4-0 and has yet to win a game by fewer than 20 points.
The Hurricanes, meanwhile, lost three of their top-five scorers from their Elite Eight run a season ago. While Isaiah Wong returns as the facilitator, he’ll be working with a brand new frontcourt. Miami has won every game by double-digits as well.
Which team will continue its blistering start to the 2022-23 season?
Maryland looks like a different team in the first year of the Kevin Willard era. After three straight blowout wins to begin the season, the Terps dispatched an experienced Saint Louis squad in the semifinals of the Hall of Fame Tip-Off.
Don’t expect another 3-point showcase — 40% on 32 attempts vs SLU — from Maryland. This is a team that has shot 30.8 percent in three games against teams ranked in the Kenpom 245-270.
Rather, this is a team that dominates in the paint and uses its length to create second-chance opportunities.
Fatts Russell and Eric Ayala have left, and that may actually be a positive for Willard. The two struggled at times offensively and were the main facilitators, almost to a fault. Instead, the new Terps offense features a brand new backcourt of fifth-year guards Jahmir Young (Charlotte) and Donald Carey (Georgetown).
Donta Scott has become the focal point of the offense and takes 28.8 percent of shots when he’s on the floor. He erupted for 25 points in an impressive showing against SLU. The ultra-talented Julian Reese also returns for his sophomore season and leads the team in rebounding.
This Terrapins team is not like last year’s as their offense is efficient and doesn’t turn the ball over. Obviously it’s a small sample size, but Maryland ranks 77th in eFG% on offense through four games, which is a significant improvement compared to its 208th ranking in eFG% a season ago.
Defensively, the Terps are inside the top 10 in eFG% on defense and are 13th in defending the perimeter. That’s a perfect pairing with Maryland’s length.
Their only issue has been keeping opponents off the offensive glass. Maryland has given up 13 or more second-chance opportunities in all four games this season.
Jim Larranaga has his hands full in Miami this season, and so far he’s had nothing but success. After an Elite Eight run as a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Hurricanes lost three of their top-five scorers.
The good news is star guard Isaiah Wong returns for his junior season. He’s joined by Nigel Pack (Kansas State) to make up an experienced and lethal backcourt. Jordan Miller also returns for his senior season.
The Hurricanes enter the championship game undefeated, with double-digit wins against both UNC Greensboro and Providence.
This is a young Miami team with a lot of new pieces. It ranks 264th in Division I experience and is starting a pair of sophomores in Norchad Omier and Wooga Poplar. Omier has starred early on — he’s a sophomore, though this is his third year — as the six-foot-seven Arkansas State transfer has averaged 14.2 points and 11.3 rebounds per game.
Miami is a very balanced team on offense. It isn’t dominant in one specific area but is efficient, ranking inside the top 100 in both eFG% and 2-point offense. The Hurricanes are about average in 3-point shooting and rank 32nd in Offensive Rebounding Rate.
Defense is where the Hurricanes lack a bit. They’re a smart team that doesn’t foul and force turnovers at a high rate, but they’re 208th in 2-point defense. A lot of that has to do with their lack of size.
The tallest player on this team is Anthony Walker (six-foot-nine), but he only plays about 28.8 percent of the minutes. Omier normally mans the five, but he’s just six-foot-seven, as is his frontcourt partner Jordan Miller.
Despite success inside, opponents attempt 41.8% of shots from the perimeter. They also assist on 60 percent of all field goals, putting Miami outside the top 300 in Defensive Assist Rate.
Maryland vs. Miami Betting Pick
While Miami has taken down Providence and UNC Greensboro in the opening few games, it has yet to face a team as experienced or tall as Maryland.
The Terps should contain Omeir and the Hurricanes on the glass and feast on the inside. We saw a relatively quiet outing from Reese yesterday, but he should have a field day on Sunday.
Maryland’s offense should continue to soar at Mohegan Sun Arena in what is a matchup nightmare for Larranaga. Rather than the 3-point outburst we saw against Saint Louis, Maryland should win in the trenches and beat up a smaller Miami squad. The Terps rank 29th in 2-point offense and face the Canes’ 204th-ranked defense.
Kenpom projects this as a 72-70 Maryland win, and I agree with the outcome. Unless Wong goes nuclear, I believe the Terps should stroll to another win in Year 1 of the Kevin Willard era.
The Hurricanes should struggle to force turnovers out of a disciplined and experienced Terps squad en route to a Hall of Fame Tip-Off championship win.
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