Marquette vs DePaul Odds, Picks: How to Bet This Big East Clash
Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Umoja Gibson
Marquette vs DePaul Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Say hello to the newest owner of KenPom’s best offensive efficiency mark, the Marquette Golden Eagles.
It took Shaka Smart less than two years in Milwaukee to recreate the VCU offense at the Power 5 level. The Eagles are getting anything they want right now.
The Eagles boast the second-best record in the Big East and now travel to face DePaul, which boasts the second-worst record in the conference.
While the Blue Demons have monster wins over Villanova and Xavier, they also just lost to Georgetown (which snapped a 26-game conference losing streak).
At its best, DePaul looks like a top-five team in the conference. At its worst, the team deserves to be relegated to D-II.
DePaul has 10 more conference games, including this one, so we’ll find out the true-talent level of this team soon enough.
That said, let’s check out the odds and betting angles for this matchup.
Smart runs an up-tempo, heavy pick-and-roll offense with an emphasis on scoring at the rim. This year, he has the perfect personnel grouping for this scheme.
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a better pick-and-roll ball handler than Tyler Kolek. He gets to his spot on the floor with almost zero resistance and has a perfect feel for where his guys are on the floor.
Tyler Kolek’s P&R playmaking translates to the NBA level. Has a great feel of hitting the roll man and dishing out to open spot up shooters once the defense commits.
Currently leads all high-major players in the @CerebroSports Floor General Skills Rating (*min 5 games played) pic.twitter.com/lcPVT1tcHy
— KeeseeHoopScouting (@HoopKeesee) December 7, 2022
Kolek is usually paired with Oso Ighodaro in ball-screen sets, which is almost impossible to stop. Ighodaro is a mismatch nightmare with his ability to switch onto smaller guards and ravage the post.
oso ighodaro's ball skills+size are worth monitoring for sure, a total non-shooter but he's got some utility as a dho big pic.twitter.com/bAMWkAKYvp
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 25, 2023
Finally, Kam Jones, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and David Joplin are all threats to pull up or drive in spot-up situations.
Ultimately, you get the most efficient inside-out offense in the nation. Marquette terrifies opponents by touching paint and then either dishing out or scoring with the roll man.
Marquette is elite with its spacing and shot selection and has the 17th-highest rim-and-3 rate nationally. The Golden Eagles are an analytics nerd’s dream.
The defense is a work in progress. And unfortunately, the Eagles’ half-court and ball-screen defense have taken a nosedive during conference play.
The Blue Demons have few redeeming qualities.
That said, they space the floor well, have solid shot makers and are one of the better free-throw shooting teams in the Big East.
Meanwhile, the Demons are OK at forcing turnovers on defense, allowing them to push the floor. They’re also a solid interior defense with above-average numbers against the pick-and-roll.
But Tony Stubblefield insists on running an obscene amount of pick-and-roll (a literal quarter of the time) despite lackluster PnR efficiency numbers. The Demons also have zero interior presence, which helps contribute to horrific interior scoring numbers and even more pathetic rebounding numbers.
The wins over Xavier and Villanova had two things in common.
First, the Blue Demons shot the lights out from 3, going 18-for-43 (41.9%) from deep.
Second, Umoja Gibson stuffed the stat sheet in both games.
I’m relatively high on DePaul because of its half-court defense (fourth in Big East play) and ability to get hot from deep. If only the Demons could put together some semblance of consistent interior scoring.
Marquette vs. DePaul Betting Pick
Situationally, this spot heavily favors DePaul. There is no bigger motivational spot than off a loss to Georgetown.
Meanwhile, Marquette is in a tiny sandwich spot. The Eagles are on the back end of a two-game road trip after dominating Seton Hall and are looking ahead to Villanova at home next Wednesday.
It’s not a super sleepy spot for Marquette, but it’s significant enough to notice. And you generally want to fade Smart when he’s laying points, where he’s a career 45% coach ATS.
I don’t mind the matchup that much, either. Marquette is a similarly poor rebounding team, and its interior defensive numbers are surprisingly poor (last in Big East in 2P% allowed).
Meanwhile, DePaul’s numbers indicate it can blow up some of Smart’s pick-and-roll sets. Marquette is too dominant to stop entirely, but containing the Kolek-Ighodaro tandem is on the table.
As a 10-point home dog, sometimes all you need to do is contain your opponent. I’ll grab the points with DePaul as long as the line doesn’t drop below 9.
Pick: DePaul +10 (-110) at DraftKings | Play to +9.5 (-110)
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