College Basketball Odds, Pick & Preview for Michigan State vs. Michigan (Tuesday, March 1)
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- Michigan is playing for its NCAA Tournament lives in this revenge spot against in-state rival Michigan State.
- The Spartans are still due for some regression on both ends of the floor, even after their win over Purdue over the weekend.
- Anthony Dabbundo dives deep into this matchup.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Odds
|Michigan State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Michigan has now played two full games without Juwan Howard on the sidelines, beating Rutgers at home and then losing at home to Illinois on Sunday.
The Wolverines remain very much on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and have a chance to add another quality win to their resume as March begins. That matchup is against rival Michigan State on Tuesday in Ann Arbor.
The Spartans won the first meeting between the two teams comfortably at the Breslin Center. That victory was thanks to elite perimeter shooting and excellent transition offense, but the Wolverines were a bit unfortunate in that game based on the postgame ShotQuality metrics.
Michigan State really went into a tailspin since that victory — losing five of six — until Saturday. The Spartans pulled off the home upset of Purdue after a 3-pointer by Tyson Walker in the game’s final seconds.
Michigan has one Quad 2 and two Quad 1 games this week on its schedule, but it can’t be overlooking anyone given its tournament situation.
Even though the Spartans won the first meeting, this is a favorable matchup and revenge spot for Phil Martelli and the Wolverines.
Michigan State had an excellent performance and victory on Saturday against Purdue.
The Spartans were deserved winners, but it was really an excellent matchup for them. Purdue really struggled to guard the pick-and-roll in that game, and for similar reasons that Michigan cooked Purdue a few weeks back, the Spartans’ offense was able to be extremely effective in the half-court.
Otherwise, Michigan State’s half-court offense has been mediocre all season long. It survived early in the season on ridiculous shooting splits from deep, and being able to force turnovers and run in transition.
However, MSU is 217th in half-court ShotQuality rank, and outside the top-200 in post-up and mid-range shooting.
Those are two areas where the Wolverines’ defense has really struggled and is vulnerable, but the Spartans aren’t the team that can really take advantage of that.
Michigan State did exploit Hunter Dickinson’s pick-and-roll defense a bit in the first matchup, and may be able to go at it again.
However, you’d expect some defensive adjustments from the Wolverines. MSU made 9-of-18 from beyond the arc in that game and a lot of the 3s were well-contested jumpers.
I question how sustainable the Spartans’ shooting numbers are, anyway.
They haven’t regressed at all this year, so maybe it will hold true. However, it’s hard to believe MSU is really a 38% 3-point Big Ten offense when you consider the shooters they have.
Malik Hall and Tyson Walker are both at or near 50% from deep and neither is near that level when looking at past performances.
Martelli has shown he’s more than capable of filling in for Howard on the sidelines. He led Saint Joseph’s for 24 years prior to becoming an associate head coach under Howard in 2019.
The Wolverines had a dominant second half at home against Rutgers and then lost against Illinois when Alfonso Plummer scored 26 points and the Illini made more than half of their 3s.
Going back to that first meeting vs. Michigan, the Wolverines had their worst shooting game of the season that day in East Lansing. The Spartans’ 3-point defense continues to be very mediocre and exploitable, yet Michigan made 3-of-18 from deep in that game.
Purdue couldn’t make anything against MSU on Saturday either, but as Iowa showed just last week, the Spartans will absolutely concede open 3-point shots.
Michigan State has defensive issues guarding the post and isn’t particularly good on the defensive glass. Those are two areas I’d expect Dickinson and the offense to really exploit.
The Wolverines had 16 offensive rebounds in the first meeting and project as a team that would have plenty of success scoring on second-chance looks against the Spartans’ defense.
Michigan also might be able to run in transition a bit more if it wants to. The Wolverines force few turnovers, but the Spartans have had a tendency all season to just give away cheap turnovers. That could allow Michigan’s elite transition offense to get some easy buckets.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Betting Pick
From a situational point of view, Michigan is seeking revenge and is at home playing for its NCAA Tournament life. Michigan State is sure to be up for this rivalry game as well, but there is some potential for a bit of a letdown following a dramatic last-second victory against the league’s best team in Purdue.
I’d expect Michigan State’s 3-point shooting to regress at some point and if the Wolverines shoot better from beyond the arc offensively than they did in East Lansing, this matchup will play out a whole lot differently than the first.
Both the situation and the matchup favor the Wolverines here at home. I’m expecting them to get revenge and would lay up to -5 before there’s no more value in the number.