Wake Forest vs Virginia Odds, Pick: Must-Win Spot

It's hard to match the juice of February college basketball.

Conference rivals meet in front of raucous home crowds, with conference tournament seeding and NCAA tournament berths in the balance.

Saturday's meeting between the Virginia Cavaliers and Wake Forest Demon Deacons meets the profile, with plenty at stake for both teams.

Of all the games this weekend, you could make a case that no win would mean more for a team than the Demon Deacons stealing a road win at John Paul Jones Arena. Computers and predictive metrics love this team. KenPom and BPI both slot Wake as a top-30 team in the nation, yet the rest of the Deacs' resume screams "bubble team."

Wake has swept its must-win games, going 11-0 in Quad 3-4 games. The issue has come against better competition. Wake Forest is just 5-4 in Quad 2 games and 0-4 against the top quadrant.

This game at Virginia will be the first of a group of chances for the Deacons, including home dates with Duke and Clemson. But when the best road win on your team sheet came at Boston College, the committee may turn its nose up.

The predictive metrics are certainly closer to my evaluation of this team than its static resume. The Deacs have the talent to be nipping at the heels of Duke and Carolina, yet can't seem to seal the deal in road games.

At Pitt, the Deacs were bit by a cold shooting night, hitting only 6-of-22 from deep.

At Florida State, the shooting luck came on the other end, as the Noles made more than half of their outside looks.

When NC State literally failed to make a 3-pointer against Wake, the Demon Deacons responded by committing a heap of self-inflicted wounds, like 16 turnovers and 26 personal fouls.

After transferring from Gonzaga, Hunter Sallis has bloomed into a real star in Winston-Salem. His supporting cast is plenty good enough to not just make the NCAA tournament, but win games in March. This team just needs to get out of its own way and find a signature win.

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The Hoos seem safely inside the NCAA tournament bubble, but the edge is a lot closer than Virginia fans may realize. A recent eight-game winning streak helped the Cavs' resume, but it only featured one game against a likely NCAA tournament team (Clemson).

By ESPN's BPI metric, Virginia has the second-toughest remaining schedule in the ACC.

After playing Wake Forest, Virginia's ACC schedule offers plenty of roadblocks and obstacles. First, the Cavaliers will travel to play in-state rival Virginia Tech, where the Hoos have lost three straight games.

Virginia then welcomes North Carolina — a top-10 team — and travels to Boston College. That trip isn't daunting, but it's tougher than many would think, with the Eagles inside the top 100 of most predictive metrics. Virginia then heads to Cameron Indoor to play Duke.

That stretch offers Virginia a chance to greatly help or hurt its footing in the postseason landscape.

In order for the Hoos to survive those tests, Virginia's offense will need to be sharper than it's been. Virginia ranks 123rd nationally in offensive efficiency, despite some positive qualities.

Like most Tony Bennett teams, Virginia deftly avoids turnovers, especially unforced errors. Virginia can shoot the 3 (top-20 nationally in percentage), but doesn't (299th in 3-point rate).

And, of course, Virginia still plays at the slowest pace in the nation. That patience has its benefits, yet leaves this team without easy answers.

Virginia doesn't get easy looks in transition, doesn't find put backs on the offensive glass and rarely earns trips to the foul line. Bennett's insistence on a deliberate playing style may result in smart plays on the floor, yet it leaves something to be desired on the scoreboard.

This matchup can lead you into a rabbit hole, with both teams going through recent ups and downs in terms of shooting luck on both sides of the both.

At the end of the day, however, I just can't escape that Wake Forest is the better basketball team here.

If that bears out on the court on Saturday, it will determine if Wake Forest's issues on the road are a trend that will continue or if the Demon Deacons are due for some positive regression. This season, Wake is 2-6 ATS on the road, including an 0-5 record as a road underdog.

It's unlikely for a team as good as Wake to lay egg after egg on the road, even in tough environments. With a sense of urgency in a must-win spot, facing a team they've already beaten by 19 points, I'll back the Demon Deacons.

Pick: Wake Forest +3 or Better