Today marks the last Saturday of the college basketball regular season.
While we still have plenty of college hoops to bet on, most major conferences begin league tournament play this upcoming week. Soon, these 150-game slates will be no more.
But we still have Duke vs UNC picks, Texas Tech vs BYU picks, and much more in our college basketball picks and NCAAB best bets for Saturday, March 7.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 PM | |
  | 2 PM | |
  | 5 PM | |
  | 6:30 PM | |
  | 10:30 PM | |
 | Noon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Arkansas vs. Missouri Pick
I was surprised to see this total drop after opening, given the Hogs have been on a tear — five straight Arkansas games have gone Over.
Darius Acuff, Maleek Thomas, and Billy Richmond are on a tear. The Hogs have snuck into the top-five nationally in offensive efficiency. They look like an NBA team in transition (17 possessions per game, 99th percentile; 1.3 PPP, 99th percentile), rip through opponents off the dribble, never turn the ball over, shoot the hell out of the ball, and bash the offensive glass.
How do you stop that?
I don’t think Missouri can. The Tigers are horrific at defending in transition (1.1 PPP allowed, 19th percentile) and in isolation (.96 PPP allowed, ninth percentile).
That’s why Arkansas dropped 94 on the Tigers just a few weeks ago.
But at the same time, I don’t trust the Razorback defense. They can’t defend on the ball, and they can’t defend off the ball.
That’s why Missouri dropped 86 on the Hogs just a few weeks ago.
I project 163.7 points for this game, so I’m banking on more of the same. I’d play the Over at 160.5 or better, representing at least a three-point difference between my projection and the market.
Pick: Over 160.5 or Better
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Louisville vs. Miami Pick
By Jim Root
The first and most obvious note here: this is another Quad 1-A game for Louisville, a scenario where the Cardinals have struggled mightily all year.
Will they fall to 0-9 in these contests?
Miami certainly has the physicality and talent to bully the Cardinals. Udeh and Reneau will be a handful in the paint and on the glass, despite Louisville grading out decently in both categories for the full season.
Malik Reneau can put J'Vonne Hadley under the rim, and Miami is more than willing to play through him in the post (he is in the 72nd percentile nationally in post-up frequency, per Synergy).
Louisville will get shots up against a Miami defense that generally trends toward a more conservative, compact approach. However, the length of the backcourt and wings could make life difficult on Ryan Conwell and Isaac McKneely, which becomes doubly important if Mikel Brown Jr. is limited or has to sit.
The distribution of minutes in the Cardinal frontcourt will be crucial. Aly Khalifa’s passing in five-out alignments could unlock the Hurricanes’ defense, but that means risking a bloodbath on the glass, as Ernest Udeh will eat him alive.
Fru may have to play more than normal as a result, which could hamstring Louisville’s spread attack at times – especially if Brown is not around to run ball screens.
Ultimately, I’m backing the home team.
This is not a trend-based pick, though it doesn’t hurt that Louisville simply has not been able to get it done in similar situations.
Instead, this is about Miami’s overall physicality — the Canes pass the “get off the best” test and back it up on the court.
With Brown’s health in question, I’ll lock in Miami. If he is out, I would take Miami up to -5. If he is in, -3 is my strike.
Pick: Miami -3 or Better (if Brown plays)
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Utah vs. Baylor Pick
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems:
This system, titled Slow Pace Struggling, is rooted in the idea that large road underdogs on extended losing streaks who already play at a deliberate tempo are often priced as if they will collapse rather than compete.
By focusing on visiting teams on significant losing streaks with low-pace profiles and catching sizable spreads in either the regular season or the postseason, the angle assumes the market overreacts to recent results without fully accounting for style.
Slow-paced teams reduce total possessions, which naturally compresses scoring margins and makes it more difficult for favorites to create separation.
Even when talent gaps exist, fewer trips up and down the floor limit volatility and keep games within reach.
A struggling visitor that grinds possessions, shortens the game, and avoids transition chaos can linger inside inflated numbers, turning what looks like a mismatch on paper into a cover driven by tempo control and mathematical scarcity of scoring opportunities.
Utah ranks 13th among Big 12 teams in adjusted tempo (66.4 possessions per game) and 15th in average possession length (19.2 seconds) — The Utes love to grind the game down.
At the same time, I wouldn't trust Baylor's defense (or obscene turnover issues) to create enough margin in the Big 12 regular-season finale.
Pick: Utah +12 or Better
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North Carolina vs. Duke Pick
By Sean Paul
I know rivalry games are tough, but Duke is the better team — by a lot.
The Blue Devils outplayed North Carolina in Chapel Hill, but they couldn't hang onto a double-digit lead.
I don't see that happening again.
The Blue Devils are firing on all cylinders. I'm expecting a 20-plus point win.
Pick: Duke -17.5 or Better
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Texas Tech vs. BYU Pick
A big-time win without your star player for the majority of the game against Iowa State has to have the Red Raiders confident.
But road games in the Big 12 are always tough — and that's the angle I'm banking on for this game.
BYU's home crowd will be electric, and I think we'll see a let-down game from Texas Tech.
While Texas Tech rallied in a brutal environment in its last game, I think it's too much to ask the Raiders to do it again.
Pick: BYU ML
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Stuckey's Full Action App Card for Saturday
Need more picks for Saturday's action? It's always wise to see what our guy Stuckey is betting on!
If you haven't already, make sure you download the Action Network App to track all your bets and follow all your favorite experts:
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