Welcome to March.
Let’s take a look at our college basketball confidence rating picks for Tuesday. These went 3-0 last week, so hopefully, we can piece together another winning week.
UNC Wilmington vs Elon Pick
| UNC Wilmington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | |
| Elon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | |
UNC Wilmington lost at home to Charleston on Sunday.
That made the Seahawks’ job a little more difficult, but they still need just one more win to claim the CAA regular-season crown.
Meanwhile, Elon has collapsed late in the season.
The Phoenix offense, which was excellent early in the season, has let them down in a big way down the stretch. Elon has scored 57 points or fewer in three of its past five games.
UNC Wilmington prefers to play slowly, and they absolutely forced their pace in the first head-to-head meeting, which featured just 60 possessions.
More often than not, the better team controls the pace. UNC Wilmington is clearly the better team.
Kacper Klaczek missed the last game for Elon, and he averages 11.9 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. Elon isn’t a deep enough team to be missing key guys in a battle against a top team in the league.
Only one opponent in the last seven games has reached 70 points against the UNC Wilmington Seahawks. I don’t think Elon will reach that total, either.
Pick: Elon TT Under 70.5 (-105, DraftKings)
Confidence Rating: A-
Monmouth vs Northeastern Pick
| Monmouth Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 149.5 -105o / -115u | |
| Northeastern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 149.5 -105o / -115u | |
Kavion McClain has made a world of difference for Monmouth.
He is a lightning-quick guard who has been a real spark for the Monmouth offense. McClain has only played in the past seven games for Monmouth, but he has at least 14 points and five assists in six of those seven.
The Monmouth offense has been much improved of late with that boost from McClain, and now gets to go up against the CAA's worst defense.
Northeastern has allowed a ridiculous 1.24 points per possession in conference home games.
The Huskies are the second-fastest-paced team in the league, so they should be fine with running with Monmouth in this one.
Monmouth put up 81 points in a win over Northeastern earlier this season, and that was without McClain in the lineup.
At the same time, Northeastern has nothing to play for, while Monmouth can better their seed in the CAA Tournament.
Pick: Monmouth TT Over 76.5 (-120, DraftKings)
Confidence Rating: B
Nebraska vs UCLA Pick
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 143.5 -115o / -105u | +100 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 143.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
Mick Cronin and the UCLA Bruins get to go back home.
UCLA is a completely different team at home. It’s hard to believe the team that was beaten by Minnesota last game is the same team that upset Illinois only a week earlier.
Nebraska has been excellent this season. Fred Hoiberg has been masterful in leading this Cornhuskers team from a 17-14 regular season last year to a 25-4 mark so far this season.
The Cornhuskers have made defense their calling card. Nebraska ranks fifth nationally in defensive efficiency. The Cornhuskers have a rare combination: the highest turnover rate in the conference, and the ability to defend without fouling. That combination can make a defense next-level good.
UCLA looked awful on defense in Minnesota last weekend. I have no doubt that Cronin was all over this team about their lack of effort on defense. A shorthanded Minnesota team put up 1.40 points per possession. I fully expect UCLA to be flying around and contesting shots in this one.
Games between two teams with high winning percentages have tended to go under the total late in the regular season.
Pick: Under 143.5 (-105, DraftKings)
Confidence Rating: B-
