Monday College Basketball Betting Picks: Kent State-Eastern Michigan, Wisconsin Green Bay-Northern KentuckyOffering Spread Value
Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images. Pictured: Antonio Williams #4 of the Kent State Golden Flashes
- Conference tournament season is in full effect and there's plenty of betting value all over the slate.
- John Ewing uses our Bet Labs database to find useful betting trend for tonight's games including Wisconsin Green Bay-Northern Kentucky and Kent State-Eastern Michigan.
- See his picks below.
Historically, public bettors tend to wager on teams that have been covering the spread and fade those that haven’t. It’s basic human nature to believe that something will continue to happen because it has in the past.
In fact, according to Bet Labs, teams that have covered at least three of their past five games have received a majority of spread tickets in 66.1% of regular season games when facing an opponent that has covered one or fewer of its past five.
Oddsmakers understand these tendencies and shade their lines to force square bettors to take bad numbers as a result. In postseason play, however, the team with strong recent against-the-spread (ATS) form receives a majority of bets in only 54.1% of games.
Why the change?
Conference Tournament Betting System Pick
Often the team that has been covering will be favored when facing an opponent that isn’t, and recreational bettors would normally love to take a covering favorite.
But in postseason play, like conference tournaments, the public is more likely to bet the underdog, assuming games will be more competitive because teams are desperate to extend their seasons.
Once again, oddsmakers know this is a tendency of casual bettors in postseason play and are less likely to inflate the line as they would in regular season matchups. This creates value betting teams that have been covering when they face an opponent that hasn’t.
Since 2005, teams with good recent ATS form have gone 310-246-11 (56%) ATS when facing an opponent with bad recent ATS form. A $100 bettor following this system would have returned a profit of $4,762.
On Monday, there are two conference tournament games featuring a good ATS team facing a bad ATS opponent. History suggests the smart play is backing the good ATS squad.
- Ohio (-5) vs. Centra Michigan (7 p.m. ET)
- Wisconsin Green Bay (+5) vs. Northern Kentucky (9:30 p.m. ET)
- Kent State (-8) vs. Eastern Michigan (9:30 p.m. ET)