Conference Tournament Simulations: Best Bets to Win ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 & SEC
Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: The Duke Blue Devils mascot
Six teams have already punched their ticket to the NCAA tournament by winning their respective conference tournaments. Over the next week, 26 more automatic bids will be handed out.
The power conference tournaments tip on Tuesday and Wednesday. The ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC titles are up for grabs, so which teams will cut down the nets?
To find out, we ran 10,000 simulations of the power conference tournaments using our Bracket Simulator. To identify bets with positive expected value we converted each team’s odds to win the tournament from FanDuel into an implied probability and compared it to our model.
Based on our projections, these are the teams offering bettors value to win their respective conference tournaments:
Greensboro, N.C. | March 10-14
According to the oddsmakers, Florida State, Duke, Louisville and Virginia are the most likely teams to win the ACC title — each is +750 or better. Every other team in the tourney is +2300 or worse.
While the betting market sees it as a four-team race, our model thinks there is a clear favorite. Duke might have finished the season 3-3 down the stretch but it ranks No. 2 in our power ratings.
The Blue Devils are projected to win the ACC tournament 51.7% of the time. Our model makes Coach K’s bunch -110 favorites, instead of +250.
Big East Tournament
New York, N.Y. | March 11-14
The Big East is wide open. There are six teams with +800 or better odds and five squads with a 15% or better chance of winning it all. Despite all the parity, one team stands out as offering the most value.