NCAAB Odds, Pick for Creighton vs UNLV

Creighton's Final Four aspirations mean every game matters, especially when looking ahead to seeding in March. A neutral-site date with a top-150 team qualifies as a must-win for the Bluejays' resume.

UNLV will welcome Creighton to its home state, looking for an upset to spark its season to life.

Creighton head coach Greg McDermott is a big fan of simple math and modern basketball strategy. This season, his Bluejays have happily embraced the 3-point line. Creighton steps on the court each night thinking, "We're going to shoot a ton of 3s and do our best to make sure you don't."

Creighton leads the nation in percentage of points scored from outside the arc and 3-pointers made per game (12.6), per KenPom. The Jays are one of just six teams taking more than half of their field goals from long range.

They're also the only team allowing opponents to take more than 75% of their field goals from inside the arc, while leading the nation in percentage of points allowed on 2-pointers. It's an across-the-board strategic decision, based on forcing teams to score in the least efficient way possible — the 2-point basket.

It extends to the free-throw stripe as well. Creighton allows the fewest free-throw attempts and makes per game in the nation, plus the lowest free-throw rate (FT/FG) in the country.

All of that is easier said than done. Of course you want to force your opponent to take tough 2s, but that takes a lot more than just running shooters off the 3-point line. If those shooters are afforded a path to the rim, you've lost your advantage.

Creighton knows that and counters with one of the best rim protectors in the sport, Ryan Kalkbrenner. No team is making its opponents shoot more 2-point jump shots than Creighton (per Hoop-Math). Teams are shooting 50.3% at the rim against Creighton (26th-lowest in college hoops), largely due to Kalkbrenner's ability to block or alter shots.

McDermott is making a really educated gamble every game — our shooters taking a ton of 3s is going to lead to more points than your team getting stuck taking 2s. So far, that's been true in every game, except for a loss to Colorado State, as the Jays hit just 6-of-29 from deep.

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The third year of the Kevin Kruger regime is off to a rocky start. The season opened with a great chance for a win, playing a Southern team that was just one day removed from a blowout loss to TCU in Fort Worth.

As 20.5-point favorites, the Rebels were run off their home court. Southern led that game by as many as 26, ultimately winning by 14.

The bigger issues have come at the defensive end of the floor. If you squint, you might be able to tell yourself that it's largely due to some horrendous shooting luck — UNLV's opponents have hit 40.9% from long range.

There are varied schools of thought as to how much your defense can really affect that number. Obviously an open or in rhythm 3-ball is more likely to go in than one taken too quickly or with a hand in the face of the shooter, but in these sample sizes, it can be really tough to judge.

Typically, my position is that a team that allows a lot of 3-point attempts and a high percentage of those attempts to fall in probably has some defensive issues with closing out or finding open players. If a team is doing its best to prevent opposing offenses from taking jumpers, but they're going in anyway, some luck and regression is more likely.

UNLV is more in that latter camp. The Rebs rank 50th of 360 teams nationally in 3-point rate allowed and 3-point attempts allowed per game. The Southern team that upended UNLV by making 11-of-18 from 3 is shooting just 24% in the six games since. Richmond is a 38% shooting team — which is good — yet made 64% against UNLV.

Don't get me wrong, UNLV's issues run deeper than this. The Rebels have struggled defensively and have been hot and cold scoring the ball. A few extra 3s helped Southern and Richmond, but weren't the sole reason those teams dispatched UNLV fairly easily.

Based on these two team profiles, this game feels like a science experiment. If we want to prove shooting regression is real, why not try against the team shooting and making more 3s than anyone else in the country?

Creighton's commitment to shooting the deep ball and the shooting talent throughout McDermott's lineup might be strong enough to persist even through a bout of regression.

Beyond that, UNLV likely doesn't have the firepower to stay with Creighton, even if the Jays go cold. I'm certainly not confident enough to take the Rebels.

I'm confident enough to trust the numbers when it comes to the total. I spelled out UNLV's incoming shooting regression case and Creighton's recent outings back that up. In their last three games, the Bluejays are averaging 13.3 for 30 from long range (43%).

I'll gamble that they go relatively cold and this game stays under 148.5

Pick: Under 148.5

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