NCAA Tournament Best Bets: Our Top Predictions & Picks for Duke vs. NC State, More

NCAA Tournament Best Bets

The last two Final Four spots are up for grabs on Sunday, as No. 2 Tennessee duels No. 1 Purdue and Cinderella story NC State takes on ACC rival Duke.

Here's Elite Eight best bets and three picks for Sunday's NCAA Tournament college basketball games on March 31.

By John Feltman

The Volunteers versus Boilermakers should be a fantastic basketball game, with the market being generous enough to give the Volunteers 3.5 points.

Despite the Bluejays' surge in the last few minutes, the Vols took care of business against Creighton on Friday.

The key factor in the game is whether or not the Volunteers can maintain their status as an elite defensive team on the interior.

Although Zach Edey is matchup-proof, Tennessee possesses enough physicality to control the big man down low.

Unlike the Boilermakers — who lack the ability to force turnovers on defense — the Volunteers pride themselves on the offensive end.

Purdue is also facing a significant matchup issue in Dalton Knecht, who should be able to carry Tennessee’s offense.

This is expected to be a physical game that will be decided in the final seconds. I’m willing to take my chances with the Volunteers catching 3.5 points, and I’m not afraid to fade the red-hot Boilermakers.

Pick: Tennessee +3.5 (Play to +2.5)

By Patrick Strollo

Two of the best remaining defenses will meet in the penultimate Elite Eight game, and I think the under is the bet to make in what should be a defensive slugfest.

The Volunteers are 18-17 on the season against the total but have been on an absolute tear for under bettors of late. In Tennessee’s last 11 games, it's cashed on the under eight times.

Tennessee has been getting results thanks to an outstanding defense that ranks third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (89.9), per KenPom. This is the best defense still standing after Houston and Iowa State got bounced.

The Volunteers will have their hands full with the Purdue offense, but I believe their elite effective field goal defense —which ranks fifth in the nation — will be the difference for under bettors.

In particular, Tennessee’s 2-point defense is well-positioned to limit Purdue from inside the arc. The Volunteers rank fifth in the nation in 2-point defense, allowing opposing teams to connect on 44% of their attempts.

This season, Purdue has shot 53.7% from inside, and while I think it would be naïve to assume Tennessee could drag Purdue’s splits down nearly 10%, it’s reasonable to assume a 5% reduction that gets us well into under territory.

My model projects the total for this game at 146.0, representing solid value relative to the current market of 148.0.

I recommend backing the Tennessee defense and betting the under at 146.5 or higher.

Pick: Under 148 (Play to 146.5)

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By Matt Gannon

Welcome to the ACC Championship — I mean the Elite Eight in Dallas.

Both Duke and NC State needed a lot to go their way to get to this point. At the end of the day, you need a little bit of luck to be successful — that's part of the madness.

If Virginia would’ve fouled up three with a few seconds left in the ACC Tournament, NC State wouldn’t be in this spot.

On the other side, if Houston's Jamal Shead didn’t roll his ankle, Duke likely wouldn’t have won that Sweet 16 game.

Clearly, these teams are very familiar with one another and have split results this season. This will actually be their third meeting in March, which is extremely unique.

At first glance, it seemed like too many points, but at the end of the day, Duke is the far better team. You don’t want to find yourself chasing a trendy underdog at a price you could've gotten for weeks.

Duke has seen NC State twice and knows its game. NC State thrives on physicality and hustle plays, which would usually be a dagger for Duke.

What the Blue Devils did against Houston, however, had my jaw on the floor. With or without Shead, Duke showed a hustle and toughness we haven’t seen in years.

If that Duke team shows up, look out. We know the Blue Devils have all the talent in the world, but they’ve lacked a little toughness this season.

Duke showed it has that extra gear, which is enough for me to back it in this spot.

Pick: Duke -6.5 (Play to -7.5)

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