College Basketball Pick & Prediction for NC State vs Duke

Everybody slandered the ACC during the regular season — I'm no exception. The much-maligned conference has made the detractors eat crow, as either NC State or Duke will advance to the Final Four.

You read that right — two more underdog victories after nothing but chalk in the Round of 32.

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NC State's fairytale run continues, and it's one game from reaching the pinnacle — the Final Four.

The Pack trailed Louisville at halftime in the first round of the ACC Tournament. They then managed to come back and win seven more games to reach their current position.

The great teams can win NCAA Tournament games in different ways. Well, NC State won in the first three rounds by scoring over 1.05 PPP, and it scored just 0.97 against Marquette. On defense, NC State held a typically elite Marquette offense to 0.84 PPP on 4-for-31 shooting from deep.

The story of NC State's run is making timely plays. DJ Horne and Michael O'Connell connected on two shots late vs. Marquette — Horne drilled a prayer 3 before the shot clock expired and O'Connell drilled the dagger with 90 seconds left.

Horne scored 19 points on 4-for-7 from 3 after two straight games scoring below his 16.8 season average. We know how dangerous Horne is when he gets hot, like when he dropped 29 in the ACC tourney title game against North Carolina.

Plus, you can't ignore the impact from the interior players, DJ Burns Jr. and Mohamed Diarra. While Burns can slice and dice defenses with his passing and use his smooth footwork to score, Diarra is an energy guy who posted another double-double in the Sweet 16.

Both will need to show up against Duke in the Elite Eight.

Jon Scheyer just secured the most impressive win of his two-year coaching tenure. The game script played right into Houston's hands, but the Blue Devils benefitted from Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead getting hurt.

Even though Shead leaving steals the storylines, Duke deserves credit for staying composed and pulling out a huge, upset win.

Tyrese Proctor made a pair of massive defensive plays, securing two steals in the game's final two minutes. He's not known for being an elite defender, but he came up clutch.

The Blue Devils' foursome — Proctor, Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain and Kyle Filipowski — is arguably the toughest group of players to contain in the Elite Eight. Having future pros is a huge bonus in March, and three of the four are definitive next-level talents.

Filipowski made a pair of clutch late buckets against Houston, finishing the win with 16 points.

McCain led the Blue Devils with 46 total points in the first two games, but he scored only seven points on 3-for-6 shooting against Houston.

Roach lives for the March moments. He made only five shots on 14 attempts against the Cougars, but he made clutch plays in the second half.

Duke struggled in its ACC Tournament loss against NC State, shooting 5-for-20 from 3. The Blue Devils' 3-point season average is 38%, so shooting only 25% in that game was down significantly from the usual.

Some of that is just unfortunate shooting variance, which can happen at any time. We saw Marquette generate clean looks from 3 against the Wolfpack, but it shot 12% from downtown in the loss.

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Just two weeks ago, Duke laid 11 points against this exact NC State team, and the Pack grabbed the outright win.

What results will we see on Sunday?

Well, I like Duke here.

The mixture of defensive improvements and elite offensive play — paired with a hopeful regression to the mean in the shooting department — will lead to a cover.

Pick: Duke -6.5 (Play to -7)