We're down to four teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament — Arizona, Michigan, UConn and Illinois.
So, with that in mind, our staff has five predictions for Saturday's Final Four.
Dive in below for Final Four picks, including NCAA Tournament best bets for Saturday, April 4.
Final Four Picks, Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:09 p.m. | |
| 6:09 p.m. | |
| 6:09 p.m. | |
  | 8:49 p.m. | |
| 8:49 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Illinois vs. UConn
By Stuckey
These two teams met earlier this season in Madison Square Garden, which resulted in a relatively easy UConn win.
However, I don't really take anything away from that November meeting. Mihailo Petrovic played more minutes than Keaton Wagler, and Jaylin Stewart logged 24 minutes in a start for UConn (with Braylon Mullins having only 10 off the bench).
Both teams are astronomically different than what they were at that time.
Illinois has turned into an offensive juggernaut thanks to the emergence of Wagler and a host of players that fit perfectly around the freshman guard on the offensive end. Meanwhile, UConn still runs some of the best offensive sets in the country.
The Illini defense certainly isn't elite, but they can limit looks at the rim (first percentile frequency) and they foul at the lowest rate in the country by a decent margin. With that in mind, I don't expect many free points for the Huskies.
Fortunately for UConn, which has had turnover issues this season, Illinois' passive defense ranks last in the country in that department.
Additionally, Illinois has struggled to defend off ball screens in the half-court (20th-percentile efficiency with a 92nd-percentile frequency), which should be music to the ears of the UConn offense, which owns a 99th percentile off-screen rate, per Synergy.
However, I'd imagine we see some zone looks from the Illini to disrupt some of the elite actions the Huskies run on that end of the floor.
Tarris Reed Jr., who's playing at an incredibly high level at the moment, will likely get his (assuming he can stay out of foul trouble), but the rest of the supporting case can be very inconsistent on a game-to-game basis.
Maybe Mullins carries over some momentum from that game-winning shot against Duke, but he had been struggling for weeks leading up to that heave, making just 10 of his last 58 (17.2%) before that memorable bucket.
The same goes for Solo Ball, who's had issues from the outside this season, especially of late.
If those two can both find their groove from the perimeter, that would really boost UConn's chances, but that's tough to rely on based on what we've seen for quite some time.
And in order to advance to the title game, I think UConn will likely need to connect on a decent amount of its 3-point looks. In their eight losses this season, the Illini gave up an average of just under 11 triples per game, with only Michigan and Michigan State failing to reach double-digit makes.
I'm not sure I trust the UConn shooters enough at the moment to shoot well enough to keep up with an electric Illinois offense that has so many different ways to score.
Wagler may find it tough to score at a high clip in this particular matchup, but the downhill driving ability of David Mirkovic and Andrej Stojakovic should come in handy (I'd look at both players over points in the prop market).
In addition, the bigs who can step out and shoot from the perimeter are a matchup problem.
Illinois also never turns the ball over (10th) and can dominate a game on the offensive glass (third nationally), especially against a UConn defense that can be a bit susceptible to second-chance opportunities. I do expect the Illini to win the all-important shot volume battle.
I anticipate the Illini grabbing enough offensive boards to scramble the UConn defense, which should lead to some open looks from the outside.
On paper, Illinois has the clearly superior team. Keep in mind it's only lost once since Dec. 1 in a game that wasn't decided on a buzzer beater (Nebraska) or overtime (four OT losses to tourney teams). And guess what? That loss came against Michigan.
Meanwhile, UConn came into the tourney having lost four of its last 11 games, which included a pair of bad defeats to non-tourney teams in Marquette and Creighton (at home).
And while Illinois has cruised to four double-digit victories to get to the Final Four, the Huskies struggled a bit in their first-round matchup with Furman. Then they benefited from a shorthanded UCLA squad before almost blowing a 20-point lead to Michigan State.
Finally, they needed a miraculous comeback from 19 down to take out Duke, so it's been far from smooth sailing for them.
I personally make the Illini slightly less than a four-point favorite, which is pretty in line with other projections:
- KenPom: Illinois 74, UConn 70
- Haslametrics: Illinois 73, UConn 68
- Bart Torvik: Illinois 72, UConn 69
The question you have to ask yourself is how much the Dan Hurley tourney tax is actually worth. The guy is just an absolute demon in March, as evidenced by an insane 14-0 ATS mark in the second round or later.
While admittedly a bit fearful of the Hurley wizardry, I do show enough value to back the Illini here, and I'll hunt a cheap moneyline price throughout the week.
Pick: Illinois ML -130
Illinois vs. UConn
By Ryan Minion
Tarris Reed Jr. was incredible against Duke on Sunday, finishing the contest with a remarkable 26-point performance against the most difficult frontcourt matchup in the country.
If the Huskies are to advance to their third National Championship in the last five years, they'll require another big-time game from their 6-foot-11 star center.
Though Illinois boasts tremendous size, with bigs who can really stretch the floor, the Illini forwards are far more impressive on the offensive end of the floor.
Upon completely dismantling a Duke defensive frontcourt featuring the likes of Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba II, I have a ton of confidence backing Reed in this spot.
I expect UConn’s senior center to present an overwhelming defensive matchup for Brad Underwood’s forwards, given Reed’s physicality in the post.
While Illinois has far more versatility offensively, I expect Reed to have another dominant showing on Saturday.
Pick: Tarris Reed Jr. 15+ Points
Illinois vs. UConn
While Stuckey is targeting the moneyline and Ryan is going with a player prop for Tarris Reed Jr., I'm taking a different route based on an edge from our Action PRO projections.
As you can see above in the screenshot, our site's projections have this total up at 142, compared to the 139.5 number that is currently circulating at sportsbooks at the time of writing.
That creates a nice B- grade and over a 3% edge.
So, back these two offenses in this first Final Four game.
Pick: Over 139.5
Michigan vs. Arizona
Arizona has won 13 straight over KenPom top-10 teams (with five of those coming by nine points per game). The Wildcats have had a harder road to this point in the NCAA Tournament, with victories against Utah State, Arkansas and Purdue.
Also, the Wildcats have a major edge in extra scoring opportunities, as they're 30th in that category (+3.4) while the Wolverines are 215th (-0.6).
The three Big Ten teams that crashed the offensive glass hard — Illinois, Purdue and Michigan State — gave the Wolverines trouble.
The Boilermakers knocked them off in the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan State wasted 15 offensive rebounds in a home loss because they couldn't knock down shots (4-for-23 from 3), and Illinois similarly couldn't capitalize, missing 20 triples.
As we know, Arizona isn't 3-point dependent. The Wildcats hunt 2-point shots, foul shots, and I'm sure they're going to try to get Yaxel Lendeborg into foul trouble.
Give me the Wildcats straight up.
Pick: Arizona ML +105
Michigan vs. Arizona
By Evan Abrams
While this is projected to be one of the best games of the 2025-26 college basketball season and 2026 NCAA Tournament, I'm still going to bet the under.
And there's good reason to do so based on a system of mine — "Tourney Finals Under."
This Bet Labs Sports Insights system is 78-51-0 (60.5% hit rate) since its inception in 2005, garnering a 16.8% return on investment and an A grade.
This system is built for the semifinals or final of the NCAA Tournament, and it's specifically tailored towards the fact that games slow down, pressure builds and arenas are difficult and more unique than regular round events.
Put (somewhat) trust in these defenses.
Pick: Under 157.5
