Hofstra vs Duke Odds, Pick for Tuesday

The Duke Blue Devils recently hit a few bumps away from Durham, losing two straight road games.

Luckily, their schedule offers a few home opportunities to get back on track, with Duke winning the first of those easily over Charlotte.

Duke's next challenge is the Hofstra Pride, a sneakily dangerous opponent, even in Durham.

Here's Hofstra vs Duke odds and a pick for Tuesday.

Most Duke fans won't be shaking in their boots seeing Hofstra on the schedule, but the Blue Devils would be unwise to overlook the Pride.

By most predictive metrics, Hofstra is a top 100 team nationally and the early favorite to win the Coastal Athletic Association.

The Pride are a tough out. They're the 20th most experienced team in Division I, featuring a ton of returning production from last year's team that went 16-2 in conference play.

The scariest thing about this Hofstra team is their style of play, especially as an underdog.

Former NBAer and Hofstra alum Speedy Claxton has been excellent since taking over as head coach, with his teams playing slow and shooting often. The Pride are elite shooters, ranking in the top 50 nationally in 3-point shooting (37.9%) and fifth in free-throw shooting (81%). They're also 12th in percentage of points scored from beyond the arc.

A low-possession game means a smaller sample size for size, speed, skill, and athleticism to overtake hot shooting.

Hot shooting nights are a regular occurrence for Hofstra. Tyler Thomas, posting 24 points per game this season, has hit 35% of his over 700 collegiate 3-point attempts. Darlinstone Dunbar is a one-time Iowa State transfer who can bang inside or step out to shoot a jumper.

Thanksgiving weekend, you'd catch little flack for saying Duke looked like a team with Final Four potential.

The Blue Devils had just one loss, coming at the hands of a powerful Arizona team, followed by a win over highly-ranked Michigan State.

Since then, Duke's hit a few speed bumps.

Back-to-back losses in true road games aren't cause for a panic button, but dropping those games to Arkansas and Georgia Tech raises some red flags. Additionally, that once impressive win over Michigan State doesn't look so special after Sparty dropped three more to dip below .500.

Offensively, in both of Duke's recent losses, the Devils shot poorly yet ultimately looked competent, even with starting guard Tyrese Proctor's injury.

The trouble has been more on the defensive end of the floor, as Duke really misses Dereck Lively's rim protection from last season.

Against Georgia Tech, Yellow Jackets big man Baye Ndongo dropped 22 points while shooting 8-for-9 in the paint.

Against Arkansas, the issue was keeping perimeter drivers away from the rim. Duke got caught out of position a lot, leading to 30 free throw attempts for the Hogs.

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This game feels like a look-ahead to the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Although, if anything, that's giving Duke too much credit. Right now, the Bracketology aggregation site Bracket Matrix has Hofstra as a 13 seed and Duke as just a seven.

The main difference between this game and a March date between these teams is the game's location. Cinderella stories don't start in true road environments like Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Despite that disadvantage, I think there's value with Hofstra here.

Duke already got a chance to right the ship after its losing streak by blowing out Charlotte, and now the Devils have a Madison Square Garden meeting with Baylor on deck. Duke's last two opponents have combined to shoot just 25.6% from beyond the arc, and Hofstra is due to hit a few more after a 28% shooting night in its last outing.

If Hofstra shoots well and keeps the possessions down, I think the Pride keep this close, if not win outright.

I don't think a dice-roll on Hofstra's ML is crazy, but I like Hofstra +15.5 more, and I love Hofstra 1H (when those odds become available).

Picks: Hofstra +15.5 (Play to +15)

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