Idaho State vs. Northern Arizona Sharp Betting Pick: Pros Finding Value on Big Sky Spread
David Dennis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Brooks Debisschop
Idaho State vs. Northern Arizona … just the reason that we’ve all been counting down until today’s date.
All right, maybe you didn’t even know this game was happening — personally I had to double-check to make sure this actually was the first round of the Big Sky Tournament. But nonetheless, if it’s a March college hoops game during an afternoon hour, it’s going to attract bets.
It’s not just casual bettors hitting this game for its appealing start time (4:30 p.m. ET), though. Sharps are also finding value on the spread, and the line has been adjusted as a result.
Let’s take a look.
Idaho State vs. Northern Arizona Sharp Betting Pick
Casual bettors may not know whole lot about either of these two squads; they should, however, know what “last place” means.
That’s exactly where Idaho State (4-16 in Big Sky play) finds itself entering the postseason, and going up against the 6-seed Northern Arizona (10-10), it would probably take a decently-sized spread to garner any sort of public backing of the Bengals (that’s Idaho State).
In other words, a 4.5-point opening number was never going to cut it — not for the public, at least.
Seventy-nine percent of spread bets have landed on Northern Arizona since the line opened, making the Lumberjacks one of the most popular bets (by percentage) on today’s slate. Those bets, however, have accounted for just half of the actual money hitting the spread.
Bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — have actually been taking the handful of points with the last-place Bengals, and as a result, this line has moved away from the popular side, getting Idaho State to +4.
And serving as confirmation of the sharp action, a Sports Insights Bet Signal revealed a market move that came as a result of smart money at +4.5.
Sharp angle: Idaho State (moved from +4.5 to +4) [Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]