Indiana vs. Nebraska Odds, Betting Pick: How to Bet an Unusually High Big Ten Over/Under
Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Traycee Jackson-Davis
- Updated betting odds for Wednesday's Big Ten Tournament game between Indiana and Nebraska have the Hoosiers favored by 15 with an over/under of 144.
- The over/under opened at 142.5, making it just the second time a first-round Big Ten Tournament game has had such a high total.
- Check out Dom DiLeo's breakdown of the game, including a betting pick on that unusually high over/under.
Indiana vs. Nebraska Odds
- Odds: Indiana -14.5
- Over/Under: 144
- Time: 8:25 p.m. ET (estimated)
- TV: BTN
- Location: Indianapolis, Ind.
[Big Ten Tourney Promo! Bet $10 on Wednesday night’s Indiana-Nebraska game and win $10 for EVERY 3-pointer made.]
This spread opened at -12.5, and is climbing higher. Now sitting at -14.5 as of writing, I think its a little too high, even with Nebraska’s absolutely abysmal performances as of late.
The Cornhuskers have lost 16 (!) straight games heading into this tournament, and are matched up against Indiana, a team squarely on the bubble, needs a win to solidify their NCAA Tournament bid.
I’m wary of trusting the Hoosiers to cover in this spot. While first year Nebraska coach Fred Hoiberg might throw in the towel and head into the off-season, a fresh start in the conference tournament against a team facing enormous pressure to win, a 14.5-point spread is a bit too much for me to take. I don’t trust Indiana, and I definitely don’t trust Nebraska.
That’s why I’m eyeing a total that could be inflated due to perceptions on Nebraska’s pace.
This total opened at 142.5, and to illustrate just how high this total is – according to our Bet Labs data, only once since 2005 has a first-round Big Ten tournament total opened higher than 142.5.
The under in all first round Big Ten tournament games in this same period is 25-18, good for a 58.1% clip. Call it early jitters, call it rust, but the under has proved profitable in this situation.
Nebraska is one of the fastest teams in the country, as Hoiberg has implemented his fast-pace offense most recently seen at the college level with Iowa State.
The Cornhuskers’ adjusted tempo rate, according to KenPom, is 73.0, good for 21st in the country. Hoiberg’s squad has an average possession length is 15.2 seconds, which is fifth-fastest in the country.
Conversely, Indiana has a more deliberate offensive pace, with an adjusted tempo rate of 67.7, 215th in the country. The Hoosiers’ average possession length is 17.7 seconds, which is pretty below average nationally.
I’d imagine Indiana will try and slow down the Cornhuskers by controlling the pace while ensuring a win and an NCAA Tournament berth.
Playing the under also has the benefit of backing bad offenses.
Nebraska, which isn’t good at really anything, shoots 46.7% from the field and 32.0% from behind the arc, shooting percentages that are in the bottom third of all college teams.
Indiana also isn’t too strong on offense, and the Hoosiers don’t attempt many 3-pointers. Their 3PA/FG attempted rate is 29.4% — 330th in the country.
I’m taking the under here.
PICK: Under 144