Kansas vs Baylor Odds & Pick: Bet the Bears?

Editor's Note: Bill Self says that Kevin McCullar Jr. will try to play.

The possibly shorthanded Kansas Jayhawks look to bounce back against Baylor following a surprise home loss to BYU this past Tuesday.

KU has been without leading scorer Kevin McCullar Jr. for the better part of the month, including a 64-61 win over the Bears on Feb. 10.

Baylor, on the other hand, snapped a two-game skid with a road win against TCU and returns to Waco with revenge on its mind.

Can Baylor take advantage of Kansas' lack of depth in front of its home crowd, or will the Jayhawks sweep the season series?

At this point, Kansas needs to bide its time until McCullar returns to full health.

It’s not worth rushing him with Kansas being a shoe-in for an at-large bid. Though it’s worth nothing that without their leading scorer, the Jayhawks are vulnerable.

In the second half of its first home loss of the season to BYU, Kansas couldn't create anything on offense unless it was a trip to the free-throw line. Hunter Dickinson could only do so much, and the lack of depth became blatant.

Nicolas Timberlake, who has slid into the starting forward role for McCullar, shot 1-of-9 from the field. KU shot 45.5% on 2-point attempts and a measly 20% from 3.

In the final 10 minutes of the game, BYU took over and tired legs settled in for the Jayhawks, who were outscored, 28-17.

That’s not to say that Kansas won’t remain competitive, but the loss of McCullar looms large against tougher competition. KU couldn’t beat a BYU team at home despite leading by double digits. The Cougars are also among the worst power-conference teams on the road this season, per Haslametrics.

Dickinson is the engine of this Kansas offense and takes nearly a third of all shots while on the floor. He’s a strong rim protector and an elite rebounder, averaging a double-double this season.

The offense runs through the Jayhawks’ 7-foot-2 big man, whether it’s creating in the pick-and-roll or out of the post. Bill Self’s squad often takes high-percentage looks and ranks 23rd in 2-point percentage.

Johnny Furphy is the team’s lone consistent 3-point threat, but this is an offense that takes under 30% of all attempts from 3. KU won’t create many second chance opportunities, rather it'll look to get the best shot possible and a high-percentage look at the rim.

Without McCullar creating, it’s on Dajuan Harris Jr. to find Dickinson and K.J. Adams Jr. in the paint.

Like its offense, KU’s interior defense remains its strength. Dickinson’s sheer size forces opponents away from the rim and into the mid-range (21% of shots) or onto the perimeter. Kansas ranks ninth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

The Jayhawks rank 331st in Haslametrics’ away-from-home parameters and close to 300th in both momentum and consistency.

They were able to fend off Baylor by three points without McCullar on Feb. 10, holding the Bears to 0.91 PPP.

Despite heavy roster turnover from a season ago, Baylor has remained one of the Big 12’s best. While defensive issues have flared up at times, the offense has been excellent.

Baylor shoots the 3 ball at the second-best rate in the country (40.4%). This is an elite shotmaking offense, one that's physical and loves to attack downhill through RayJ Dennis and Ja’Kobe Walter. Scott Drew’s squad doesn't shy away from contact, in fact the Bears almost prefer it.

They rank inside the top 25 in both offensive rebounding and FTA/FGA. Freshman Yves Missi has become a vital part of this rotation and has quickly become one of the Big 12’s best big men. He draws 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes and averages 1.6 blocks in just 23 minutes per game.

So long as Missi can avoid foul trouble, Baylor has an elite rim protector to work around a talented offensive cast.

Three players are shooting 41%+ from 3, though it’s worth noting Langston Love (49.3% from 3) is questionable. He's played just once in Baylor’s last six.

Despite their success from distance — and 39% of all shots do come from 3 — Baylor attacks the rim at a 44% rate, top-30 in the country. Rim-and-3 Rate is crucial here, as the Bears don’t look to attack in the mid-range — a big plus. This is a tall and athletic squad, one that's often hard to guard.

Defensively is where Baylor’s issues arise. It's just 60th in Adjusted Efficiency and outside the top 220 in 2-point defense. When Missi is off the floor, this is a soft interior; Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua’s injury history has caught up to him and Josh Ojianwuna has rarely been a factor.

The Bears rank 33rd in defending finishes at the rim and 27th in the pick-and-roll, per ShotQuality, though their issues have come in the mid-range (146th) and in transition (187th).

In Big 12 play, Baylor is 12th in effective field goal percentage on the defensive side of the floor. The Bears have been burnt on the perimeter (34.9%) but have done well limiting second chance opportunities.

In this battle between Big 12 heavyweights, McCullar's status looms large. We likely won't know until closer to game time, as Self said the superstar is improving and that it remains a possibility he suits up.

But even if he does, he likely won't be at full strength.

Without him, Kansas' lack of depth shows. The Jayhawks are 335th in bench minutes and are relying on players like Timberlake and Elmarko Jackson to perform in expanded roles.

The loss of McCullar also puts a higher strain on Dickinson, which should lead to the 7-foot-2 big tiring out easier — especially later on.

Looking back at the first matchup, KU really struggled to stop Missi. He scored 21 points and grabbed eight rebounds, the lone bright spot in an otherwise brutal offensive showing (61 total points for Baylor).

It's worth noting that Baylor struggles on the road (4-4 in Big 12 play) and is much better in the friendly confines of Foster Pavilion.

Baylor's downhill and aggressive nature should prove disruptive on Saturday, especially in front of a home crowd in arguably the team's biggest home game of the season. The Bears have revenge as a motivation factor as well, looking to bounce back against a vulnerable KU that — if foul trouble arises — will be left scrambling.

There's more outs for Baylor here at home, and with McCullar's status up in the air, I would back the Bears all the way up to -5.5. They opened as 3.5-point favorites and have quickly been bet up.

Even if McCullar plays, this is a revenge spot where the Bears won't take their foot off the gas pedal.

Pick: Baylor -4.5 (Play to -5.5)