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Kansas State vs TCU Odds & Picks | Spot of All Spots for Frogs?

Kansas State vs TCU Odds & Picks | Spot of All Spots for Frogs? article feature image
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Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: TCU’s Damion Baugh.

Kansas State vs TCU Odds

Saturday, Jan. 14
2 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Kansas State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+4.5
-110
148.5
-110o / -110u
+150
TCU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-4.5
-110
148.5
-110o / -110u
-182
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

There’s not much more a college basketball fan could ask for than Saturday afternoon’s matchup between Kansas State and TCU.

Kansas State looks to stay in a tie for first place in the Big 12, while TCU hopes to rebound from back-to-back losses to Iowa State and Texas.

Jamie Dixon’s Horned Frogs are in must-win mode if they want to keep pace with Kansas, Iowa State and Kansas State at the top of the Big 12. On the other side, Kansas State is looking for its 10th win in a row and a fifth win over teams inside the top 30 in the last 14 days.

This is a perfect statement opportunity for both teams that have serious aspirations to finish at the top of the Big 12.

In order to get a better understanding of who will make a statement, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Kansas State vs. TCU.


Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State has vaulted to the top of the Big 12 standings by beating West Virginia, Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma State in an 11-day span.

The Wildcats have strung these wins together behind stellar offensive play. Kansas State ranks 29th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 78.8 points per game.

This offensive firepower is generated through senior point guard Markquis Nowell, who’s averaged 27.7 points during the Wildcats’ four-game winning streak. Nowell is also averaging 8.8 assists due to his 45.7% assist rate, which is the second-highest rate in the country.

Nowell’s importance to this team is reflected in EvanMiya‘s BPR rankings, where Nowell is a full 1.34 points ahead of any other Kansas State player.

Kansas State's 116 points against Texas was the most points scored against a high-major program this season.

The Wildcats went nuts from deep, converting 54.2% of their triples. Star of the night: Markquis Nowell with 6 of them (86th %ILE w/1.10 PPP). pic.twitter.com/YbLGj8KJ9y

— ShotQuality (@Shot_Quality) January 5, 2023

This level of offensive production from Norwell and Kansas State will be challenged against a highly-motivated Horned Frogs team. Defensively, TCU has been great at creating pressure and extending its defense without fouling.

TCU has created a turnover on 23.6% of opponents’ possessions, which is the 22nd-highest rate in the country. Expect this turnover rate to continue against a Kansas State team averaging 13.4 turnovers per game.

Additionally, the Horned Frogs create this havoc while allowing opponents to score 17.3% of their points from the free-throw line. This ability to defend without fouling will be crucial against Kansas State, which has scored 19.8% of its points from the charity stripe.

No matter how impressive Kansas State has been offensively, it’s matching up against a motivated TCU defense that’s equipped to create havoc.

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TCU Horned Frogs

The term “must-win” isn’t used often in January, but it could be the case for TCU to keep its Big 12 title hopes alive.

The Horned Frogs will look to get back in form on the offensive end after scoring an average of just 71 points during their two-game losing streak. In order to accomplish this, head coach Jamie Dixon will look to TCU’s advantage on the interior.

TCU is scoring 58.6% of its points from inside the 3-point line,  the 19th-highest rate in the country. This ability to create interior success will be emphasized against a Kansas State team allowing 52.4% of opponents’ points to come from 2-point range (136th nationally).

Another area TCU will look to capitalize on is its ability to get to the free-throw line. The Horned Frogs score 20.4% of their points from the charity stripe, while Kansas State allows opponents to score 20.4% of their points from the free-throw line.

If Kansas State can’t defend without fouling, its lack of depth will come into play. The Wildcats get just 24.6% of their minutes from the bench, while TCU gets 40.3% (15th nationally).

I also expect depth to be a significant factor for a Kansas State team that has had two of its last four games go to overtime.


Kansas State vs. TCU Betting Pick

It’s difficult to bet against Kansas State given the way it’s played on the offensive end. The Wildcats have put up 80 or more points in three of their last four games and don’t look to be slowing down.

Even given this offensive ability, I believe this is a perfect time to sell high on the Wildcats given this matchup with TCU.

The Horned Frogs have the size and stylistic advantage on the interior to be able to wear down a Kansas State team lacking depth.

Additionally, the Wildcats have benefitted from incredible 3-point production, which will not be replicated against a TCU team that has allowed just 27.1% of opponent points to come from distance.

TCU will be highly motivated and equipped to get back in the win column — especially against a Kansas State team coming off a grueling four-game stretch.

Pick: TCU -3.5 or Better

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