Kentucky vs. Auburn Betting Guide: Will Defenses Set Pace in an Elite Eight SEC Showdown?

Kentucky vs. Auburn Betting Guide: Will Defenses Set Pace in an Elite Eight SEC Showdown? article feature image

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tyler Herro and Bryce Brown

NCAA Tournament Betting Odds: #2 Kentucky vs. #5 Auburn

  • Spread: Kentucky -4.5
  • Over/Under: 143
  • Location: Kansas City, Mo.
  • Date: Sunday, March 31
  • Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS

>> All odds as of Saturday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.

An SEC showdown with a Final Four spot on the line? A traditional power against a team dripping with confidence? Yes, please.

Auburn will look to avenge two losses to Kentucky earlier this season in the Elite Eight on Sunday. The latter one came by 27 points just over a month ago.

Who will advance to the Final Four, and what will make the biggest difference? Our analysts dive in.

Market Report for Kentucky-Auburn

This line had to open higher than normal with Auburn’s Chuma Okeke out for the rest of the tournament after tearing his ACL in the Sweet 16. Kentucky opened -3.5 and has moved to -4.5 behind 76% of the dollars wagered.

The total has also seen a big move, dropping from 143.5 to 141. Stay up to date on the latest odds and betting percentages in The Action Network app or on our Auburn-UK game page— Steve Petrella

The “Hard to Beat a Team 3 Times” Myth

An old adage says that it’s tough to beat a team three times in the same season, as Kentucky is trying to do vs. Auburn.

But that actually hasn’t been the case — teams going for a third win in the conference or NCAA Tournament have won 72% of those contests. — Steve Petrella

Trends to Know

Auburn scored 97 points in a win over North Carolina in the Sweet 16.

Since 2005, teams that scored 80 or more points in their previous game have gone 124-154-8 (44.6%) ATS in the NCAA Tournament. If that team is an underdog, like Auburn, they have gone 43-80-4 (35.0%) ATS. — John Ewing

Auburn Red-Hot From 3

In Auburn’s two losses to Kentucky this season, its offense wasn’t rolling like this. The Tigers have averaged 1.22 points per possession through their first three NCAA Tournament games, shooting 42.6% from behind the arc.

The Wildcats have allowed the 59th-highest 3-point scoring rate in the nation, and saw Wofford’s Fletcher Magee and Houston’s Corey Davis Jr. struggle to find 3-point strokes in the last two rounds. Don’t expect the same from Bruce Pearl’s red-hot bunch.

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