College Basketball Odds, Pick for Kentucky vs Tennessee

Tennessee secured an outright regular-season SEC title with its win against South Carolina on Wednesday, and now it returns home to Knoxville for a top-25 matchup with the red-hot Kentucky Wildcats.

UK sits as the current No. 4 seed in the SEC, and a win would secure a double-bye in the conference tournament.

Will we see a flat Tennessee squad in its final game of the season after securing the top seed, or will the Vols come out hungry and sweep the season series against Kentucky?

After SEC play started bleak, Kentucky has seemingly turned a corner. The Wildcats have ripped off six of their last seven, with their lone loss coming at the buzzer to LSU.

Kentucky’s offense is capable of putting up video-game numbers. The Cats run-and-gun, ranking third in 3-point percentage and inside the top 30 in 2-point percentage. Efficiency is the name of the game for the Wildcats, who don’t turn the ball over.

One of the most underrated players for Kentucky has been freshman Reed Sheppard. He's a do-it-all point guard who's shooting over 50% from 3. He also ranks first in the conference in steal rate and has averaged 7.3 assists per game over his last four.

His ball-handling ability takes pressure off players like Rob Dillingham and Antonio Reeves.

Speaking of Dillingham, he shoots over 30% of Kentucky's shots when on the floor, but he's also an elite offensive creator. He's fifth in the country in assist rate and averages 15.1 points in 23 minutes per game. The only reason his minutes are low is because he occasionally deals with foul trouble.

Having a duo of creators like Sheppard and Dillingham allows for a player like Reeves to fill in as the veteran scorer.

There’s no shortage of offense for John Calipari’s squad, and we’ve seen that over the last four games, as UK has scored 110+ twice and 90+ each time.

Defensively is where concerns rise. Kentucky games often turn into track meets, and the Wildcats rank outside the top 200 in forcing turnovers, defensive rebounding and FTA/FGA. In general, their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranks 99th.

It’s taken a long time for Kentucky to really establish its big men, with a rotation of Zvonimir Ivisic, Ugonna Onyenso and Aaron Bradshaw all seeing a fluctuating workload. Tack on Tre Mitchell’s nagging injury, and UK’s interior has been lacking.

Teams attack Kentucky from the inside out. Nearly 40% of all shots come around the rim, while another 25% come via catch-and-shoot 3s. Teams don’t look to attack the Wildcats in the mid-range, instead trying to force mismatches in the pick-and-roll while continuing downhill.

Because of its high-flying offensive nature, Kentucky is outside the top 300 in consistency. The Wildcats are, however, a decent team away from home. We saw that in an 11-point win in "The Jungle" to stun Auburn and a Sheppard near-buzzer beater against Mississippi State.

Is this finally the year Rick Barnes puts the critics aside and leads Tennessee to an Elite Eight appearance?

This is definitely the most talented roster Tennessee has had in years.

Once again, the defense has established itself among the elite, but there’s a key difference at UT than in years past.

Dalton Knecht.

Finally, this team has a high-level scorer that ranks among the best in the NCAA. He single-handedly willed Tennessee to an outright SEC championship in a road win over South Carolina on Wednesday, dropped 39 to beat a stifling Auburn defense and has scored 20+ points in 70% of conference games.

Even if everyone sans-Knecht has an off night, often the Vols remain at arm’s length. He’s that good.

Having a player like Jonas Aidoo in the post has also provided extra relief for UT. The 6-foot-11 junior has taken a significant leap this season and has become both a strong rim protector and an elite rebounder. He's inside the top five in SEC play in both block and offensive rebounding rate.

This offense doesn't attack the rim at a high rate (just 35% of attempts), rather it runs off-screen ball movement to allow for the heavily-guarded Knecht to get open. From there, it’s a lot of catch-and-shoot 3s or Knecht elbow jumpers.

Knecht is unguardable and doesn’t turn the ball over often. You'll rarely catch him making mistakes, and he’s a more-than-capable passer if double teamed.

As hinted at earlier, Tennessee — once again — boasts a top three defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. The Vols are top-20 in both perimeter and 2-point defense. There’s no shortage of defensive bruisers in this rotation, and that goes for Knecht as well.

ShotQuality ranks Tennessee’s defense inside the top three at defending out of the half-court (No. 1), catch-and-shoot 3s (No. 1), off-the-dribble 3s, finishes at the rim and the pick-and-roll. About 15% of all 3s taken are left unguarded, a testament to how intense and nonstop this Vols pressure is.

Everything you need to bet like a PRO!

Eye-popping betting model edges

Sharp action signals for every slate

Player prop picks bursting with value

GO PRO NOW!

I snagged Kentucky immediately on open at +9.5, and I would buy the Wildcats down to around +8 here.

When it comes to motivation, Kentucky holds all the edges over Tennessee. The Vols just won their rematch against South Carolina to lock up the No. 1 seed in the SEC and now play in what's essentially a meaningless game.

Kentucky? Well, not only did the Wildcats lose to Tennessee earlier this season, but a win secures the No. 4 seed in the SEC tournament and in turn a double-bye.

Mitchell also returned to the lineup last week and his presence alone will provide a boost on both ends of the floor.

This is a different Kentucky team than when it fell to Tennessee over a month ago.

Pick: Kentucky +9 (Play to +7.5)