Miami vs Duke Odds, Picks: Defensive Advantages Across Board
Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Duke’s Kyle Filipowski.
Miami vs Duke Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
On Saturday, Miami will travel to Cameron Indoor to take on Duke in a game both need to win in order to keep their position on a tight ACC leaderboard.
Duke sits at 4-3 and in sole possession of eighth place in the conference, while Miami finds itself in a four-way tie for second at 6-2.
Since 1950, the Hurricanes are just 9-23 vs. the Blue Devils, but they’ve won two of the last three meetings. Both teams have lost two of their last four games, with all of these losses occurring on the road.
The Hurricanes’ most recent outing was an 82-78, home victory over Syracuse. Miami showed a balanced offensive attack with four different players scoring at least 13 points.
Duke’s last outing was a loss on the road against a Clemson team that has been lights-out on its home floor.
To determine who comes out on top in this ACC matchup, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Miami vs. Duke.
Jim Larrañaga’s Hurricanes got off to a red-hot start, winning 13 of their first 15 games. Since then, Miami has come back down to earth, losing to both Georgia Tech and NC State on the road.
The Hurricanes shot just 15% from 3-point range against Georgia Tech and racked up 17 total turnovers against NC State.
These offensive hiccups are significant to a Miami team that relies on its offense. The Hurricanes rank 10th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 78.4 points per game.
This Miami offense will match up with a Duke team that ranks 33rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 63.4 points per game.
The Blue Devils achieve this level of defensive production by using their size and length to defend the perimeter. Duke has allowed opponents to shoot just 28.4% from 3-point range, the 11th-lowest mark in the country.
Lastly, Duke is the second-tallest team in the country with an average height of just over 6-foot-7. This will be important against a Miami team that has thrived on creating penetration this season. The Hurricanes score 54.4% of their points from the 2-point range, 74th nationally.
Expect Miami’s offense — which is already showing some regression — to continue to come back down to earth against a Duke team thriving on the defensive end.
Jon Scheyer’s first campaign as Duke’s head coach has the Blue Devils sitting at 13-5 overall. The Achilles’ heel for this Duke team has been playing on the road, as all five of its losses have been away from Cameron Indoor.
Duke’s offense has taken a hit of late with the loss of senior point guard Jeremy Roach, who has missed Duke’s last three games with a toe injury.
Jon Scheyer says he hopes that Jeremy Roach will be able to practice today, but he "really hasn't done a whole lot" and is a gametime decision tomorrow vs. Miami.
— Brendan Marks (@BrendanRMarks) January 20, 2023
Without Roach in the lineup, the Blue Devils lose their second-leading scorer and assist leader. Roach is averaging 11.9 points and 3.2 assists per game.
This hit will be significant to a Duke offense already ranking 249th nationally in effective field goal percentage. This inefficiency comes as a result of the Blue Devils shooting just 31% from beyond the arc, which ranks 300th nationally.
Because of the poor shooting, Duke has supplemented its offense by scoring 20.2% of its points from the charity stripe, the 76th-highest rate in the country. However, these trips to the free-throw line will not come easy against a Miami squad that allows opponents to score just 15.8% of their points from the free-throw line.
Lastly, without Roach, the Blue Devils will look to slow this game down and get the most out of each possession. Duke ranks 260th nationally in tempo, averaging just 66.2 possessions per game.
Overall, I see this as a game the Blue Devils will want to turn into a low-scoring affair in order to bounce back from their loss to Clemson.
Miami vs Duke Betting Pick
This is an important game for two teams that have realistic goals to win the ACC regular-season title. Given that importance, I expect both teams to value each possession and play to their strengths.
Unfortunately for those who love points, I believe each defense will match up well and take away each offense’s strength.
Without Roach in the lineup and a limited ability to score from the charity stripe, look for the Blue Devils to struggle to generate consistent offense.
On the other side, Miami will be incredibly limited by the size and length of a Duke defense that has been exceptional at defending the perimeter.
Given these defensive advantages, I would invest in the under at 146 or above.
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