Michigan vs. Purdue Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions: Will Boilermakers Continue Home Dominance?

Michigan vs. Purdue Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions: Will Boilermakers Continue Home Dominance? article feature image

Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Jahaad Proctor

  • Purdue has been dominant at home this season, going 5-1 in Big Ten play in that situation, and the Boilermakers will try to defend home court today as -3 favorites against the Michigan Wolverines (2 p.m. ET, ESPN).
  • Is it a good time to buy low on Purdue after three straight losses?
  • Our experts break down the spread and over/under in Purdue vs. Michigan and give their favorite bets.

Michigan vs. Purdue Odds

Purdue has been dominant on its home floor this season, and will look to avenge a double-overtime loss at Michigan from earlier this year.

The Wolverines have found their form in the last few weeks, but can they survive a tough road test?

Let’s break it all down.

Odds as of Saturday morningn and via FanDuel. In Indiana? Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Odds Moves for Michigan-Purdue

Just 46% of betting tickets are on Purdue, but the Boilermakers are getting 72% of the money, driving the line from -2.5 to -3 at most books. There is still a -2.5 out there at PointsBet as of 9 a.m. ET if you’re in New Jersey. — Steve Petrella

When Michigan Has the Ball

After starting 2-6 in conference play, Michigan has since gone 6-1. The key to the Wolverine’s resurrection revolves around taking care of the ball and hitting short-range shots.

Michigan is the best team in the big Big Ten in offensive 2-point percentage and steal rate. That could be disastrous for a Purdue team that has been pedestrian in defensive field goal percentage.

The Boilermakers have thrived by causing havoc on defense with the highest steal percentage in the conference. That may not work against Michigan, which has vastly improved since their first meeting on Jan. 9.

Despite the first game going to double overtime, Purdue managed to tally just two steals. Michigan shot 24% from 3-point range and 63% from the free throw line. Those numbers must improve for Michigan to keep its winning streak alive. — Collin Wilson

When Purdue Has the Ball

The Boilermakers have an effective field goal percentage of 48.8% on the season, a number that is declining with a 46.9% rate through Big Ten play.

Purdue doesn’t play slow just for a Big Ten team — it ranks 336th in tempo nationally. That can haunt a team that has not been efficient in making shots if it gets in an early hole. The Boilermakers recently scored 104 on Iowa and just 52 on Ohio State.

The biggest difference in those defenses Purdue faced is the ability to defend a 2-point shot, as Ohio State was much more effective at shutting Purdue down.

Michigan is in the middle of the Big Ten with regards to 2-point defense, so there should be ample opportunity for the Boilermakers to score.

Michigan is 333rd in defensive turnover percentage, which should allow Purdue plenty of shooting opportunities despite the snail pace. Look for Purdue to be dominant on the offensive glass, generating plenty of second-chance points and a sneaky team total over. — Collin Wilson

Purdue’s Home Dominance

Purdue is 5-1 in Big Ten play at home, including a 36-point win over Iowa, a 19-point win over Wisconsin, and a 29-point win over Michigan State. The Boilermakers have the best defensive turnover percentage and second-best offensive rebounding percentage among all teams in conference play.

However, their free-throw shooting remains a concern, ranking 296th among all teams at just 66.7%. Purdue’s 3P accuracy has also dropped to just 33% against Big Ten competition. — Mike Randle

Livers Injury Key

Michigan’s leading-scorer Isaiah Livers (13.3 ppg) was in a walking boot before Wednesday’s win vs. Rutgers and is unlikely to play against Purdue. The offense still fared well in a tough road environment at Rutgers without him, but it’s a big loss. — Mike Randle

Great Spot for Purdue

It’s a great situational spot to back Purdue here. The Boilermakers have been dynamite at home for most of the season with some absolute massacre wins against good competition at Mackey Arena.

It’s a good chance to buy Purdue low here after three straight losses in which its opponents shot a combined 35-77 (45%) from 3-point range. Purdue should have some in-conference shooting regression coming its way on both ends of the floor and I expect a fully focused effort defensively on the perimeter in a close to a must-win game against a Michigan team that struggles to shoot from beyond the arc without Isaiah Livers, who I don’t think will play today.

Meanwhile, Michigan could come into West Lafayette a little fat and happy after four straight wins. I do make this line over -3 but feel safer taking the ML (I personally parlayed Purdue ML with Washington) to protect against some of Purdue’s struggles from the free throw line, which could leave the backdoor open. — Stuckey

Stuckey’s Pick: Purdue ML -155 [In Indiana? Bet now at FanDuel]

It’s hard to bet against the Boilermakers with a huge home-court advantage against a compromised Michigan team. The Wolverines do not force turnovers and allowed Purdue forward Trevion Williams (36 points, 14 rebounds) to dominate in their first meeting.

Even with a subpar shooting night from 3P (6 of 19), the Boilermakers took Michigan to double-overtime on its home court. With an improved shooting night likely, I’m laying the small number with a Purdue team that needs to keep winning to stay in the NCAA Tournament hunt. — Mike Randle

Randle’s Pick: Purdue -2.5 or better [In Indiana? Bet now at FanDuel]

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