NCAAB Odds, Pick for Mississippi State vs Florida

Two teams sitting at 2-3 in SEC play meet in Gainesville on Wednesday as the Florida Gators welcome the Mississippi State Bulldogs to Exactech Arena.

The Gators have defeated two of the bottom three teams record-wise in the SEC, while the Bulldogs have endured a rough conference road through five games.

Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Mississippi State hasn't finished with a winning record in conference play. The Bulldogs have strung together three consecutive 8-10 seasons in SEC action — including a 10-13 league mark — under head coach Chris Jans.

Mississippi State’s three SEC losses this season have come to Alabama, Kentucky and South Carolina, but the most impressive victory came at home over Tennessee.

The Bulldogs allowed the first basket of the game against the Volunteers, but never trailed after that point, as Mississippi State grabbed a 77-72 triumph as two-point underdogs on January 10.

Following consecutive defeats to Alabama and Kentucky, the Bulldogs took care of Vanderbilt, 68-55, last Saturday as 13-point home favorites. MSU won in spite of shooting 6-of-21 from 3-point range and 12-of-22 from the foul line.

The Bulldogs are the worst free-throw shooting team in SEC action, converting only 61% of their attempts.

Tolu Smith returned to the lineup in late December after sustaining an offseason foot injury, and he leads MSU with 19.7 points per game. However, Smith is 16-of-31 from the charity stripe in the last three games, while converting on 65.5% of his free-throws tries this season.

Wednesday will mark the third time this season that Mississippi State is listed in the underdog role. The Bulldogs are 1-1 straight up and against the spread in those games, with the victory coming against Tennessee and the loss taking place at Kentucky.

Florida is on a better trajectory in Todd Golden’s second year as head coach. The Gators finished 2022-23 at 16-17, capped off by a first-round loss in the NIT to UCF.

However, Florida has started this season at 12-6, with all six defeats coming to teams ranked in the top 60 of KenPom's ratings. The Gators face Mississippi State and Georgia at home this week before a brutal stretch featuring Kentucky (for the second time), Texas A&M in College Station and Auburn at home.

Florida began SEC play with a pair of losses to Kentucky and Ole Miss, despite scoring 85 points in each defeat. The Gators picked up their first conference win against Arkansas in a 90-68 home blowout before a 19-point defeat at Tennessee.

UF is playing with some momentum after winning at Missouri, 79-67, last time out as three-point favorites. The Gators limited the Tigers to 3-of-16 shooting from 3-point range, while five players finished in double figures.

Iona transfer Walter Clayton Jr. continues to shine in his first season with UF by averaging 17.6 points in five SEC contests.

Florida’s offensive numbers aren’t great in conference play, ranking ninth in 3-point percentage (31.6%) and 11th in 2-point percentage (46.5%).

In two home SEC games, the Gators have shot 54.1% against Kentucky and 57.1% against Arkansas. Florida hasn’t shot better than 47% on 2-point attempts in any of its three road conference contests.

Last season, the Gators and Bulldogs split a pair of meetings decided by a total of three points. Florida won in Starkville, 61-59, as 2.5-point underdogs, while Mississippi State got revenge in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, 69-68, in overtime as five-point favorites.

This is a big game for both of these teams as they try to reach the .500 mark in the SEC.

Mississippi State has endured the tougher conference schedule so far, with difficult matchups against Auburn and Alabama in the next two weeks.

Florida has shot the ball better at home, but Mississippi State is worth a strong look here in a rare underdog role this season.

Pick: Mississippi State +3 (Play to +2.5)