NCAA Predictions: Ranking Final Four Chances of Elite Eight Teams

NCAA Predictions: Ranking Final Four Chances of Elite Eight Teams article feature image
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Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Houston Cougars forward Quentin Grimes (24).

March has gifted us plenty of madness so far.

The 11-seeded UCLA Bruins are only the second play-in team to advance to the Elite Eight since the NCAA Tournament added the First Four in 2011. And the 12-seeded Oregon State Beavers rode the win streak they needed to win the Pac-12 in order to even make the NCAA Tournament all the way to this point.

Of course, on the flip side, three of the No. 1 seeds still stand as well as a No. 2 and No. 3 seed.

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With the bracket down to eight teams, which squads have the best chance of advancing to the Final Four? We used the team ratings from our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, to project those chances for each remaining squad.

Let’s dig into those chances as well as Koerner’s projected scores for Monday’s and Tuesday’s Elite Eight games.

NCAA Predictions: Final Four

Team Chances
Houston (2) 84.13%
Gonzaga (1) 83.01%
Michigan (1) 76.65%
Baylor (1) 70.73%
Arkansas (3) 29.27%
UCLA (11) 23.35%
USC (6) 16.99%
Oregon State (12) 15.87%

1. Houston (2)

  • Chance to advance: 84.13%
  • Opponent: Oregon State (12)
  • Tip-off: 7:15 p.m. ET on Monday
  • Projected score: Houston 73.2, 62.2

2. Gonzaga (1)

  • Chance to advance: 83.01%
  • Opponent: USC (6)
  • Tip-off: 7:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday
  • Projected score: Gonzaga 80.2, 69.7

3. Michigan (1)

  • Chance to advance: 76.65%
  • Opponent: UCLA (11)
  • Tip-off: 9:57 p.m. ET on Tuesday
  • Projected score: Michigan 73.9, 65.9

4. Baylor (1)

  • Chance to advance: 70.73%
  • Opponent: Arkansas (3)
  • Tip-off: 9:57 p.m. ET on Monday
  • Projected score: Baylor 78.7, 72.7

5. Arkansas (3)

  • Chance to advance: 29.27%
  • Opponent: Baylor (1)
  • Tip-off: 9:57 p.m. ET on Monday
  • Projected score: Baylor 78.7, 72.7

6. UCLA (11)

  • Chance to advance: 23.35%
  • Opponent: Michigan (1)
  • Tip-off: 9:57 p.m. ET on Tuesday
  • Projected score: Michigan 73.9, 65.9

7. USC (6)

  • Chance to advance: 16.99%
  • Opponent: Gonzaga (1)
  • Tip-off: 7:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday
  • Projected score: Gonzaga 80.2, 69.7

8. Oregon State (12)

  • Chance to advance: 15.87%
  • Opponent: Houston (2)
  • Tip-off: 7:15 p.m. ET on Monday
  • Projected score: Houston 73.2, 62.2

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