NCAA Tournament Best Bets for Early Games

After a wild opening round, the NCAA Tournament rolls on with Second Round action starting on Saturday at 12:45 p.m. ET.

Here's NCAA Tournament best bets and four picks for Saturday's early college basketball games on March 23.

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Tanner McGrath

I’ve never quite trusted Arizona, which has never played well away from home and is now playing at altitude on a very short turnaround.

I also don’t trust Arizona in a tournament setting, given the Wildcats are 0-5 ATS against the closing number in the Big Dance during Tommy Lloyd’s tenure.

I’m anticipating they move to 0-6, and here’s why.

DaRon Holmes II is a serious matchup issue for the Cats. He’s among the best big men nationally, but he’s specifically deadly in the screen-and-roll and post-up game.

Arizona can’t stop either set, ranking sub-250th nationally in roll-man PPP (1.14) and post-up PPP (.91) allowed. Oumar Ballo is a dominant interior force, but he’s a tad slow-footed laterally, and I fully expect Holmes to take advantage.

Even worse, the Flyers leverage Holmes’ dominance to drag defenses toward the interior and open up perimeter shooters, ranking top-20 nationally in ShotQuality’s Spacing and Shot Selection metric. They rank in the top 30 nationally in 3-point rate and shot 40% from 3 thanks to Holmes.

That’s a problem against Arizona, which ranks sub-200th nationally in 3-point rate and Open 3 Rate Allowed. And if the Wildcats try to front Holmes in the post, things will only get worse from deep.

Overall, the Wildcats have struggled against spread pick-and-roll offenses, as Ballo can get in trouble when defending in space. Dayton’s spread pick-and-roll scheme should light it up.

On the other end of the court, Dayton’s elite transition denial defense will keep Arizona from getting comfortable in the open court – the Flyers' seven fast-break points per game allowed ranks in the top 30 nationally.

Dayton also plays a compact interior defense, denying the paint at all costs – the Flyers’ 28 paint points per game allowed rank in the top 50 nationally. That’ll cause issues for the rim-oriented Wildcats, who rank 90th nationally in 2-point scoring distribution and 287th in 3-point rate.

If the schematic argument doesn’t convince you, here’s one final trend: The Flyers are 4-1 ATS on one day of rest during Anthony Grant’s tenure (since 2018). The Wildcats are 7-9 ATS on identical rest underneath Lloyd (since 2022).

Everything points toward Dayton on Saturday. I love the Flyers.

Pick: Dayton +10 (Play to +8)

By Brett Pund

I was on Gonzaga in the first round, and I like how this matchup sets up for Mark Few’s team as well.

These two teams do most of their damage from inside the arc, with both Graham Ike and Hunter Dickinson dominating in the paint. Both are also very good defensively against mid-range and near-proximity shots.

If we assume that those two cancel each other out, it now comes down to who has the better avenue for points from other places. I think this points to the Zags, specifically with outside shooting, with Kevin McCullar Jr. out for Kansas.

For the season, Gonzaga ranks in the top 20 in 3-point percentage against average, per Haslametrics. This is also the same team that's been 11th in the country in the statistic since February.

Meanwhile, the Jayhawks have had their issues defending outside shots this year. They rank outside the top 340 in the nation in opponent 3-point percentage (355th) and percentage of points from 3-pointers (348th).

I also have to bring it back to the impact McCullar’s absence has had. In the six games he missed recently, Kansas covered the spread in only one contest. This has also had an impact on Dickinson’s performances.

Kansas was lucky to survive the opening round, but I think Gonzaga will win and cover this one.

Pick: Gonzaga -4.5 (Play to -5)

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By John Feltman

Suddenly, Michigan State is being treated like a Final Four dark horse, but I refuse to fall into that trap. Although they were impressive in their win over the Bulldogs, Sparty is far too inconsistent for my liking.

First and foremost, it’s not a great matchup for the Spartans' offense. They rely heavily on their interior scoring but sit 161st in 2-point percentage.

Not only that, but the Heels are an elite defensive team inside the arc, ranking top-10 in the country in 2-point percentage allowed. The Spartans shoot 36% from deep, but the Heels do a good job closing out on the perimeter.

Defensively, the Spartans are fantastic, but I’d much rather rely on the UNC offense over theirs. Between RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, there’s plenty of offensive versatility to get the job done.

The lone gripe with the Spartans on defense is out on the perimeter, as they’re 310th in 3PA per game. They’ve contained their opponents from deep, but they may be due for negative regression in that category.

The market has gotten out of hand here, and I expect the Spartans to be a heavily-backed public team. I’ll go against the grain and trust the Heels’ interior defense to hold Sparty at bay.

Pick: UNC -3.5 (Play to -4.5)

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By D.J. James

The North Carolina Tar Heels and Michigan State Spartans playing in the NCAA Tournament is a legacy matchup, but one of these teams is far superior on the offensive end than the other.

UNC is a strong 3-point shooting team. The Tar Heels may struggle on the interior outside of Bacot, but this team can hit 36% of its 3s. Michigan State is holding opponents to about 32% from deep, but opponents can launch a deluge of 3s on the Spartans.

Harrison Ingram and RJ Davis can take advantage of a Spartan team that can't guard off-the-dribble 3s.

Michigan State shoots more 2-pointers than 3s, and many of these shots are mid-range jumpers. Yes, UNC may have trouble guarding the mid-range, but opponents are still shooting less than 46% from 2-point land on the Tar Heels this season.

The major edge in this game could be size and rebounding. The Tar Heels rank in the top 10 in defensive rebounding and in the top 60 offensively. Bacot and Ingram are the players to watch here. MSU doesn't rank above 130th in offensive or defensive rebounding, so Bacot should have his way on the glass.

Adding on, MSU fouls often, and the Spartans don't get to the line offensively. Meanwhile, UNC fouls less often, so this should provide another boost to the Heels.

Take UNC in this one to -4.5.

Pick: UNC -3.5 (Play to -4.5)