NCAAB Odds, Pick for Northwestern vs Michigan State

Northwestern takes on Michigan State on Wednesday, March 6 at 7 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.

Northwestern is down three starters without Ryan Langborg, Ty Berry and Matthew Nicholson. Berry is done for the year and Nicholson/Langborg could return soon.

If Langborg and Nicholson don't play, Northwestern is down to seven scholarship players and one walk-on playing minutes in Blake Smith.

That said, Boo Buie could turn into the savior. He's already one of the elite guards in college basketball. Buie averages over 18 points and shoots 43% from downtown. The super senior is the top scorer in program history for a reason, and he's the one guy you feel comfortable with running the team in tough circumstances.

The Wildcats are shooting 39% from 3 this year, and a lot of their success stems from that strong shooting.

The one thing Northwestern struggles at is defending. That's a stark contrast compared to last year's team, as Northwestern ranks 83rd in defensive efficiency.

The defensive end has caused problems for Northwestern all year, and the lack of shooting due to injuries might not bail out the terrible defense.

The Spartans enter the contest hoping to avoid losing a fourth straight game. You don't want to lose games in the most important part of the college hoops season, obviously.

Currently sitting as a 10 seed in Bracket Matrix, Michigan State looks firmly cemented in the NCAA tournament conversation, but giving the committee a reason to leave you out of the Big Dance isn’t ideal either. So, winning this game could prove paramount for the Spartans' tourney dreams.

Michigan State is one of the elite defensive teams in America, ranking 12th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Spartans force turnovers on 18% of their possessions. Not only is MSU great at forcing turnovers, they also limit teams to shooting 47% from 2-point range.

Teams don't succeed at driving one-on-one against the stout defense of A.J. Hoggard and Tyson Walker. The guards grade out as the best defenders on MSU's roster, according to defensive box plus-minus.

Walker is the guy for Michigan State. He's the type of player Spartan fans will remember for a long time with his clutch-scoring ability and tough-shot making. The 6-foot-2 guard averages 18 points on 44% shooting and 37% from 3.

One name worth watching is freshman forward Xavier Booker. Spartan fans have grown frustrated with the rough play from Carson Cooper and Mady Sissoko, so seeing Booker splash a triple over Zach Edey brought a breath of fresh air.

He scored 11 points in 13 minutes in the loss against Purdue, so let's see if Izzo decides to play Booker big minutes against Northwestern.

On offense, Michigan State limits turning the ball over on 14% of possessions. Even if the offense struggles, at least the Spartans won't beat themselves.

I hate fading Northwestern, but this play is an exclusive fade of an injury-riddled Wildcats squad.

We saw the injury issues haunt them in Evanston against Iowa on Saturday.

I think we'll see another version of Northwestern's injuries haunting it here.

Plus, it's March. It's Tom Izzo's time. He'll figure it out eventually, as he always does during the most important month of the season.

Pick: Michigan State -8 (Play to -9)