Pac 12 Tournament Odds & Picks: Oregon Our Overwhelming Favorite Bet To Win Conference
Soobum Im/Getty Images. Pictured: Will Richardson, Chris Duarte
There’s still a long list of conferences yet to crown champions, with 15 championship games on Saturday followed by five more before the NCAA Tournament bracket is released on Sunday.
In order to help you navigate the jam-packed week of college basketball, our analysts have come together to deliver their top picks to win each of the remaining Power 6 and high-major conference tournaments.
You’ll find their favorite outright bets for the Pac-12 Tournament below. Be sure to also check out their picks for the Big Ten and more conference tournaments here.
BJ Cunningham: USC +235
In my opinion, USC is the most complete team in the Pac-12.
The Trojans destroy their opponents in the paint, as USC is the tallest team in the country, and it has one the best big men in the country in five-star freshman Evan Mobley. Mobley himself has carried the Trojans in the scoring department, averaging 16.1 points per game.
The Trojans shoot over 51% from inside the arc and over 61% on shot attempts at the rim, according to Hoop-Math. USC also grabs offensive rebounds better than anybody in the conference at 38.6%, which is the sixth-best rate in the entire country.
Defensively, the Trojans have been the best defense in the conference all season long, allowing only 0.95 points per possession and ranking 14th nationally in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Since they are the tallest team in the country, trying to score inside on the Trojans is a nightmare. USC allows only 42.1% from inside the arc, which is the third-best rate in the country. So, teams like Oregon, Colorado, and UCLA are going to have to shoot more 3s than they are used to.
USC has the best adjusted efficiency in the conference, so being priced behind Oregon gives it some value at +235.
Tanner McGrath: Oregon +310
Oregon is being severely undervalued right now.
The Ducks have won 10 of their last 11 games, are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games and are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. The streak catapulted the Ducks to a Pac-12 regular-season title and the No. 1 seed in the tournament.
Dana Altman has his team peaking at just the right time. Behind the collective efforts of Chris Duarte and Eugene Omoruyi, the Oregon offense is first in the conference in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.
While the team lost Payton Pritchard to the NBA last season, Oregon is still a very experienced team. The starting lineup features three seniors and two juniors, and there wasn’t too much roster turnover for the team that won this tournament last year.
I’ll happily snag the No. 1 seed in the tournament at better than 3-to-1.
Kyle Remillard: Oregon +310
The Oregon Ducks don’t seem to be getting the respect they deserve after a 19-5 season. The Ducks have won 10 of their final 11 games and still aren’t ranked inside the top 25 nationally. They are the No. 1 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament yet still have +310 odds to win it available on FanDuel.
The Ducks own the top-ranked offense in the Pac-12, hitting 53.5% from the field including 39.4% from behind the arc. They’re a well-rounded offense that has five upperclassmen who average double-digits in scoring and four who average at least five rebounds per game.
Oregon also boasts three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup who are at least 6-foot-5 and extremely athletic.
Dana Altman is one of the more underrated coaches late in the season. In the second half of the season, he owns a 71.7% winning percentage against Pac-12 opponents, scoring victories in 71-of-99 games.
As the No. 1 seed, Oregon has the easier side of the bracket and should meet UCLA or Oregon State in the semifinals. The Ducks ended the season with two wire-to-wire wins against those programs.
I see value in Oregon not only to win the Pac-12 Tournament, but to win the NCAA Tournament at odds of +6000.
Mike Calabrese: Oregon +350
For casual gamblers, shopping around can feel pretty tedious.
The difference between 6.5 points and 7.5 points on a one-off basis can seem fairly inconsequential. But when it comes to conference tournament futures, it’s worth the effort.
In this case, Oregon is listed as low as +200 at some books, while Fox Bet is offering the Quack Attack at +350. That should be enough value to convince just about anyone to throw down a little coin on the Pac-12 tournament’s top seed, now that UO is at full strength.
Also, it bears mentioning that in a fixed bracket setup, Oregon has a desirable path to the title game.
Colorado and USC, who nearly handed the Ducks three losses this season (1-2 straight up), are on the other side of the bracket, which means that Dana Altman’s squad will likely draw Arizona State and UCLA on its way to the championship.
The Ducks, winners of 10 of their last 11 SU, had no problems putting away the Sun Devils and Bruins and have added a new gear offensively since the return of Will Richardson. The junior guard has blossomed in the past few weeks and is fresh off a 6-for-7 performance from 3-point range against Oregon State.