Providence vs Creighton Odds, Pick for Saturday

The Bryce Hopkins-less Providence Friars head to Creighton to take on the Bluejays on Saturday.

After a hot start to the season — including two straight wins to open Big East play — Providence lost to Seton Hall at home, and lost Hopkins to a torn ACL in the process.

As for Creighton, a double-digit win against Georgetown has finally given Greg McDermott's squad a conference win after two straight losses.

Now large favorites against a shorthanded Providence team, can Creighton defend its home floor in dominant fashion? Or will the Friars step up in wake of the Hopkins season-ending injury? Here's Providence vs. Creighton odds and a pick for Saturday.

The Providence crowd went dead silent as Hopkins fell to the ground screaming in pain. The Friars' do-it-all big man tore his ACL, a huge blow to the Friars' offense in Kim English’s first season at the helm.

Hopkins’ ability to create shots and opportunities off the dribble will surely be missed. Even with his struggles from deep, Hopkins is a huge reason the Friars' offense had continuity. Against a dominant team that forces opponents to create off the dribble, Hopkins’ absence will be clearly felt.

Providence isn't a deep team, as it's outside the top 250 in bench minutes, relying on the likes of Hopkins, Devin Carter and Josh Oduro for heavy minutes and production.

This isn’t a particularly overpowering offense, either.

The Friars' size has been the key to the offense's success, with Hopkins and Oduro once providing a dominant frontcourt duo. Oduro has been double-teamed at the fifth-highest rate in the country, per ShotQuality, which has often led to plenty of 3s from the perimeter. Providence shoots 3s on 43% of all field goals.

Carter is the engine of the offense and will have to take on even a larger load in his junior season. He's seen his 3-point shooting jump 10% this season and he's Providence’s leading scorer (16.2 PPG).

Providence is outside the top 200 in 3-point shooting and has clear turnover issues (264th in TO%). It's top-25 in 2-point offense, though that figures to take a blow without Hopkins. Oduro will likely see more double teams with an extra emphasis on slowing down Carter.

Another area where Providence could struggle post-Hopkins is defensively. The Friars are sixth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, including owning the third-best 2-point defense. They're an athletic group that has strong rim protection and a top-10 defense against the pick-and-roll.

English’s defense is strong from top to bottom. The Friars funnel opponents inside the perimeter — they’re 25th in 3PA/FGA — and into isolation. Though they don’t force turnovers, they're stifling.

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Creighton has been one of the more intriguing teams thus far. Ryan Kalkbrenner returned for another season after a near-Final Four run, but the Bluejays have shown signs of weakness at times.

This is the perfect opportunity for McDermott’s squad to jump all over Providence and improve to .500 in the Big East.

Despite a win against Alabama, Creighton has dropped three of its last five.

As expected, with Kalkbrenner, this is one of the best offenses in the country. The Bluejays are third in 2-point offense and top-50 from the perimeter, too. Kalkbrenner requires so much attention inside that Creighton fires without hesitation from 3 — nearly 50% of all field goals come from beyond the arc.

When the Bluejays' offense gets going, it's incredibly hard to stop. Nearly 20% of all offensive plays come out of the pick-and-roll — running through Kalkbrenner — and they rank top three in ShotQuality’s PPP when it comes to catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble 3s. They’re also top 10 in the PnR and on finishes at the rim.

Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander are the primary shot takers and both play over 34 minutes per game.

This isn’t a particularly deep Bluejays roster, but they find plenty of help from the perimeter off the bench (like Francisco Farabello and Mason Miller).

In general, ShotQuality has Creighton as No. 1 in both spacing and shot making.

Defensively, Creighton deploys the Kalk drop. It funnels opponents inside the arc, where the 7-foot-1 big awaits. This is an elite defense in the pick-and-roll — SQ has the Bluejays second — and only 28% of all attempts come from the perimeter.

The Bluejays won’t force turnovers, relying on their defensive rebounding and ability to force contested and inefficient looks for success. Opponents must create offense off the dribble in the mid-range. It's an inefficient shot and those shots are often contested, leading to plenty of struggles.

The Bluejays are No. 1 in FTA/FGA too, which is a plus when McDermott rarely uses his bench.

Because of Hopkins' injury, there are a lot of question marks surrounding Providence. Can Carter step up and continue to provide a steady hand as the primary ball handler? Will role players produce in an increased fashion?

I tend to believe Creighton wins this game in a rout. But a near double-digit spread is a bit too much for me to get behind in a conference bout.

If you want to use the Bluejays moneyline as a piece in a parlay, by all means. This is a game they should win and all signs point towards them finding success, especially when it comes to stifling this Providence offense without Hopkins.

In addition to using Creighton as a potential ML piece, I do like taking the under on Providence's team total. While it's not yet released, this is the easiest to gauge.

The Kalk drop will force Providence to attack off the dribble and create in the mid-range. Carter is certainly more than able, but the rest of the team I'm not so sure about. Oduro has been a great complement, but now he faces one of the better rim protectors in college hoops.

And if he runs into foul trouble, there's no saying how much Providence will struggle.

We're going to see inefficient shots from a team that's already outside the top 250 in turnover rate, struggles from the perimeter and is adjusting to life without its superstar. I'm expecting growing pains against a Creighton defense that ranks 20th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

Pick: Providence Team Total Under

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