Purdue vs Illinois Odds, Prediction: Why to Bet Tuesday’s Home Team

Let's dive into the Purdue Boilermakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini odds, including a pick and prediction for Tuesday's college basketball game in the Big Ten.

The Purdue Boilermakers clinched at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title with Saturday's win over Michigan State.

I would think that the team with a chance to share that title — the Illinois Illini — noticed Purdue's celebration, complete with hats and confetti.

The Illini still have plenty to say about their own chances to share that conference crown, with the Boilermakers coming to town for the biggest game of the Big Ten slate so far this season.

Here's a Purdue vs Illinois pick and prediction for Tuesday.

It feels incredibly strange to say this about a team in the Big Ten, yet it's hard to get a grasp on Purdue's current form, given how light the Boilermakers' schedule has been of late.

Purdue hadn't played a top-50 KenPom opponent in nearly a month until Saturday's meeting with Michigan State. With that game coming at home, it stretches Purdue's streak of games favored by eight or more points all the way back to a date with Wisconsin on February 4.

Purdue has played 18 conference games, but just six of those games have come against the other five Big Ten teams currently projected to be in the NCAA tournament field.

It's worth noting that Purdue is 15-1 against the non-tournament bound Big Ten teams, but 4-2 against the tournament-quality conference foes. Even more alarming, in those six games, the Boilermakers are just 1-5 ATS.

That may sound like a little pre-postseason red flag, yet it shouldn't obscure that this Purdue team is still very strong. The Boilermakers are 16-3 against opponents in the NET's top two quadrants and boast one of the most efficient offenses in the nation.

That offense's foundation is built around Zach Edey, one of the most dominant big men college basketball has ever seen. He's drawing 9.5 fouls per 40 minutes of play, far and away the most in the nation.

The delta between his fouls drawn per 40 minutes and the second-most in the country (Sai Witt of Austin Peay) is the same delta that exists between second place and 27th place in that stat.

His ability to tilt the geometry of the court with his size and effectiveness around the rim can't be overlooked. It's like the opposite of the gravity caused by Steph Curry on the perimeter. Every defender needs to be aware of Edey's orbit.

That attention opens space for Purdue's perimeter players to find high value looks. Fletcher Loyer, Braden Smith and Mason Gillis are all good shooters, hitting 3s at ungodly percentages because of the space they're afforded by Edey's presence in the middle.

Illinois has solidified itself as the second-best team in the Big Ten, doing so in unexpected ways.

Brad Underwood came up through the coaching ranks as someone who preached pressure defense, using turnovers to spark offense. In his first five years as a head coach at the Division I level, his teams were top-10 in forcing turnovers four times.

Slowly, his program at Illinois has molded into one more focused on stops than steals, with the talent on the offensive side to win games in the half-court. The Illini rank 359th in turnover rate forced this season, with Big Ten opponents turning it over on just 11.9% of possessions, lowest in the conference.

Instead, the Illini defense is titled towards preventing high value shots, ranking in the top 10 nationally in avoiding both 3-point attempts and assisted baskets. The Illini trail only Creighton in terms of forcing opponents to shoot 2-point jump shots.

Unlike Creighton and many other analytically-focused teams, Illinois' commitment to that strategy doesn't find its way to both ends of the floor.

Underwood's defense forces a ton of "low-value" mid-range jump shots, but his offense takes plenty of those, likely because his two best scorers — Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask — do some of their best work at that level of the defense.

These teams have already met once, in West Lafayette during the first week of January. Purdue led by more than 20 points in the second half, before a furious Illinois comeback resulted in just a five-point game.

It's hard to derive too much from that game, given both that game script and the lack of Shannon for Illinois.

With Purdue posting just a 1-4 record in its last five ATS, this feels ripe for the Illini to steal a win.

In order to do so, the Illini bigs — especially Coleman Hawkins — need to stay out of foul trouble while dealing with Edey. Sometimes that's more about how the game is officiated, so it's risky to rely on that.

I feel a lot better relying on the Illinois' playmakers — Shannon and Domask — to put Purdue's perimeter defenders to the test.

In front of a raucous senior night crowd, I'd expect one or both of those Illinois scorers to put a stamp on this game.

I'll take the home team, but I don't want to lay points here.

Pick: Illinois ML -126