Rovell: Value Pick for Maryland vs. Ohio State on Wednesday
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Recency bias is one of the worst attributes of being a bettor, but I can’t help but think that Maryland (20-9) is going to wax Ohio State in Columbus tonight.
Sure, the Terps have struggled on the road while going undefeated at home in conference play this season, but how impressively they rocked a tournament-bound, defensively-sound Northwestern team on Sunday is hard to stop thinking about.
A previously awful three point shooting team, the Terps somehow went 14-for-22 behind the arc en route to an easy 16-point victory over the Wildcats.
Ohio State (12-17) had its best game in months as well last time out, beating Illinois and stopping a nine-game losing streak.
But all year, oddsmakers have underrated Maryland and overrated Ohio State. The same is true tonight with the -1.5 number you can get on the Terrapins at BetMGM.
Yes, I know all about the trends about how unranked home teams are doing against road ranked teams. But that’s one of the only reasons why Maryland are laying just 1.5 points tonight.
The other? The Terps’ home and away splits.
Maryland has been Jekyll and Hyde at home vs. on the road this season.
At home, they’re 17-1 straight up and 13-4 ATS. On the road, that record deteriorates to 2-7 straight up and 3-6 against the spread.
On the road, they shoot 4.4% worse from the field, 9% worse beyond the arc and 13% worse from the foul line.
Is there something in the Terrapin moxie that makes them worse on the road? Perhaps.
But fading public sentiment and laying just 1.5 points for the far better team is too good of an offer to pass up. You’re getting an artificially low number based on surface level precedent alone.
Take Maryland -1.5 (-115) at BetMGM.
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