Saturday College Basketball Player Props: How to Bet Keyonte George, Adem Bona & More (Jan. 14)
Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Adem Bona (UCLA)
With the sheer amount of games on Saturday’s slate, it gives us a perfect opportunity to shy away from more than just spreads and totals.
Here are three player props I love for the night slate on Saturday.
Baylor will welcome in the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday night for what is sure to be another Big 12 banger of a matchup.
The Bears have been solid from 3-point range all season, averaging 36% from deep. However, they’ve been even better as of late, cashing in on 37.6%.
Keyonte George is tied for 47th among all D-I players and has attempted 122 3-pointers this season. He’s also tied for 61st in 3s made per game (2.69).
Why I’m focused on George specifically is he’s not the best 3-point shooter on his team.
Adam Flagler is the best 3-point shooter for Baylor, cashing in on more than 45% of his attempts and averaging 3.14 3s per game. He will be the main focus of the Cowboys when it comes to defending the perimeter, opening more opportunities up for George.
The Cowboys’ defense has been sixth in conference play when it comes to defending the 3. Oklahoma State has allowed teams to shoot 34.5% from 3 in conference play. And while it has held teams to 28.7% on the season, that number has ballooned up to 32.8% over their last five.
Against Kansas, the Cowboys allowed the Jayhawks to hit 47.8% from deep. Baylor averages even more 3-point attempts than Kansas, and even if the Bears don’t hit at that high of a rate, I think there’s promise in George to cash in on at least three.
He’s gone for four or more in three of Baylor’s last five games.
UCLA has been one of the best offenses in the Pac-12, and on Saturday night, it’ll host the third-best defense in the conference.
The Bruins surpassed the second-best defense in Utah last time out, but for Adem Bona, I think this could be a very different game.
First and foremost, Bona is averaging just 8.4 points per game on the season. He’s improved over the last five, but regression comes for all of us.
Secondly, Bona is a non-threat from beyond the arc, Bona sees almost all of his scoring come from around the rim or from the mid-range, where he takes more than 50% of his shot attempts, with another 18.9% coming in the paint.
Colorado has been one of the best teams in the nation — specifically over its last five — when it comes to defending both at the rim and from the mid-range.
The Buffs rank in the 92nd percentile over their last five in defense at the rim, holding teams to just 55.1%. Colorado also ranks in the 86th percentile over its last five in defense from mid-range, holding teams to just 28.6%.
And finally over the last five games, Bona is averaging three fouls per contest. UCLA doesn’t have much depth on its team, but with how well Colorado has defended in Bona’s best areas, even if he does play while in foul trouble, there’s nothing that says he’ll still find success.
We’ve all heard how strong the Saint Mary’s defense is. And yes it’s strong, but when it comes to conference play, it’s had some serious issues defending in the mid-range and on corner 3s.
The Gaels have allowed teams to hit 40.4% from mid-range and 40% from the corner over their last five.
Now, I will say this: San Francisco is not a team that lights it up from the mid-range or the corner. In fact, it rarely take shots from either area of the floor.
But the Dons’ best player in both is Tyrell Roberts. Over the last five games, Roberts has cashed in 44.4% from the mid-range and 66.7% from the corner.
Oh, and by the way, Roberts is on a heater as of late, scoring 18 or more points in each of his last three games.
Will that slow down with the Gaels bringing this game to a grinding halt like they always do? Absolutely. But Roberts is second on the Dons in minutes and fifth in usage — he’s going to get these opportunities regardless.
He’ll get them even more so if he’s cashing in from the mid-range and the corner like I expect him too.