Texas A&M vs Houston Odds, Pick for Saturday

Amid a loaded Saturday slate, we get a Texas-sized showdown in the Lone Star State.

Undefeated Houston welcomes 7-3 Texas A&M to its fair city, though this game is notably at the Toyota Center (home of the Rockets) and not on Houston’s campus.

The Cougars have been rolling this year, riding a 10-0 start to the top of KenPom’s rankings. However, national love has trailed behind, with the Cougars sitting fourth in the AP Poll.

This is partly because Houston has yet to beat a top-35 team. Wins at Xavier and over Utah and Dayton on a neutral floor are solid, but they lack the flash to grab voters’ attention.

Though Texas A&M is not quite among the nation’s elite, a convincing Houston win could shift the perspective.

One could argue the Aggies are significantly more battle-tested. They have played just two Quadrant 4 games, while Houston has inflated its rating by thumping seven (!) Q4 adversaries.

The Aggies’ identity mirrors its coach's: intense, in-your-face, aggressive.

Buzz Williams is an animated and passionate presence on the sideline, and his team’s downhill style fits him to a T.

Texas A&M’s offense has soared into KenPom’s top 10 ratings primarily because of its assertive physicality. Led by a hyperactive stable of bigs, the Aggies rank second nationally in offensive rebound rate, constantly earning second shots. That is especially helpful when considering their poor perimeter shooting.

TAMU has attempted more field goals than its opponent in every game this season, partially thanks to offensive glass work but also because of elite ball security.

Maestro lead guard Wade Taylor IV has the ball in his hands constantly, and the supporting cast around him rarely coughs it up to the opponent. Getting a shot up every time down the floor is vital because it feeds the offensive rebounding beast.

That ball security also helps remove transition opportunities from opponents, a major point of emphasis for Williams-led teams. He wants to force teams to score against a set defense.

Texas A&M is most vulnerable against foes who take care of the rock and can knock down jumpers. The Aggies allow plenty of perimeter looks (340th in 3-point rate allowed), so if the jumpers fall, TAMU can get buried. See the 17-point loss to white-hot Penn State in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

The “host” Cougars are nearly a mirror image offensively of Texas A&M.

Thanks to a deep backcourt of savvy playmakers, they never turn the ball over, and they pound the offensive boards with reckless abandon (fourth in turnover rate).

The primary difference?

Houston has legitimate perimeter snipers.

LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp have combined to hit 55 triples in 10 games at a 38.5% clip. The duo stretches defenses, opening the court for drives from Jamal Shead and Damian Dunn or post-ups from J’Wan Roberts.

Like almost every season under Kelvin Sampson, Houston’s deeply entrenched identity is on the defensive end.

By far the best unit in the country by any analytics site – KenPom, Bart Torvik, EvanMiya, Haslametrics, etc. – the Cougars have yet to allow 1.0 PPP in a game this season.

They keep you away from the rim – boasting the third-lowest rim rate allowed in the country, per Hoop-Math – and harass everything on the perimeter. Opponents are shooting 27.5% from 3-point range this year, the 18th-lowest mark nationally. That's a tradition in Houston, as the Cougars have ranked in the top 15 in that category in five consecutive seasons.

If that’s not disruptive enough, Houston also ranks in the top 10 nationally in both steal and block rate. Only four other schools rank in the top 25 in both categories.

You cannot get comfortable against this defense, underscoring the importance of TAMU’s supporting cast taking care of the ball.

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From a broad sense, it's essential to acknowledge that Texas A&M is back to full strength. Henry Coleman and Tyrece “Boots” Radford missed a brief stretch, but they played a full workload against Memphis last Sunday.

(Note: bruising big man Julius Marble has yet to debut, but it is unclear if that will ever happen, and the team is accustomed to his absence.)

Texas A&M seems capable of replicating Xavier’s model for keeping this one close, forcing Houston into long possessions and difficult jumpers while matching the Cougars’ physicality. TAMU also has the savvy to avoid getting rattled by Houston’s overwhelming length.

That said, I am not in a rush to fade this Houston juggernaut, so I am being relatively inflexible with what price I am willing to take — +8 or better.

The Under could also be a play if both teams take care of the ball, as both rely on transition opportunities to juice their efficiency.

For now, I will stick with just the side.

Pick: Texas A&M +8.5 (Play to +8)

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