NCAAB Betting Preview for Texas vs Kansas State

NCAAB Betting Preview for Texas vs Kansas State article feature image
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Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images. Pictured: Markquis Nowell (Kansas State)

Texas vs Kansas State Odds

Saturday, Feb. 4
4 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Texas Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1.5
-104
150.5
-110o / -110u
-111
Kansas State Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1.5
-118
150.5
-110o / -110u
-108
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

We have a terrific matchup lined up in Manhattan, as the Kansas State Wildcats will look to bounce back at home against the Texas Longhorns.

The Wildcats were manhandled by the Kansas Jayhawks this past Tuesday, and with the Big 12 standings beginning to tighten up, this is an extremely crucial game for them.

Kansas State can leapfrog Texas as the top team in the standings with a victory.

As for the Longhorns, they are coming off a 81-76 home victory over Baylor, as Sir'Jabari Rice gave them a huge lift off the bench with 21 points. The Longhorns can build a more comfortable Big 12 lead if they can pull off a tough win on the road at Bramlage Coliseum.

These two teams met in Austin back on Jan. 3, when both offenses eclipsed 100 points. The Wildcats won 116-103, so the question here becomes if we are going to get a similar type of game.

This is such an interesting matchup to handicap, and we can attack this in a couple of different ways.

Let's break down Texas vs. Kansas State.


Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns needed their recent win against Baylor in the worst way, as they seemed to be limping along after a loss to Tennessee last week in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.

Texas is one of the most balanced teams in the country, ranking in the top 15 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and top-30 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

Minnesota transfer Marcus Carr leads the Longhorns in scoring, averaging 16.7 points per game. He dropped 27 back on Jan. 3 when these two teams met up.

Guard Markquis Nowell won the backcourt battle for the Wildcats on that particular day, as he outscored Carr with 36 points of his own.

Timmy Allen and Rice continue to be crucial complimentary pieces for the Longhorns, and they will need to be big contributing factors if Texas wants to come out of Manhattan with the victory.

When I look at this particular matchup, I believe Texas will need to take advantage of earning extra possessions. Kansas State is 244th in the country in allowing opposing offensive rebounds, so when Texas gets these opportunities, it definitely needs to capitalize.

Texas was -8.5 in the first matchup back on Jan. 3. It could be a simple fact of the market not adjusting well enough to Kansas State, but now the Wildcats find themselves as a 1.5-point underdog here on the road.

This is something we need to keep in mind.

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Kansas State Wildcats

I can't think of too many duos that are more fun to watch than the one the Wildcats possess.

Leading the way in the backcourt is Nowell, and then we have senior forward Keyontae Johnson.

This tandem has been absolutely spectacular for the Wildcats, and they will need to do the heavy lifting in this matchup once again.

Johnson had a terrific game of his own — alongside Nowell — in this matchup back on Jan. 3, dropping 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting.

Underlying metrics suggest that this Kansas State team is legit, as it ranks 32nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 28th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

I do have concerns about the Wildcats' ability to grab defensive rebounds, but in my opinion, they can compete with any team in the Big 12. That's saying a lot about their overall talent, considering we can all agree that the Big 12 is the deepest and most talented conference in college hoops this year.

I think this simply comes down to another battle between Nowell and Carr, which I would give the edge to Nowell.

The question that remains is if that will be enough to grab their second victory over the Longhorns in the past month.


Texas vs Kansas State Betting Pick

I originally wanted to blindly take this over, considering both teams rank inside the top 65 in tempo. However, I think both of these defensive units are underrated.

I also contemplated taking Texas, simply because I think it's crazy how drastically the market has shifted in one month; the Longhorns were a big home favorite in this same matchup 31 days ago.

But I really think these teams are even, and I am going to trust the Wildcats here at home.

I expect them to bounce back from their loss at Kansas and leap back to the top of the Big 12 standings.

Nowell nation, we ride.

Pick: Kansas State ML -115

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