Thursday College Basketball Betting Odds & Picks: Colorado vs. Oregon, Dartmouth vs. Vermont
Andy Lyons-Getty Images. Pictured: Payton Pritchard
Conference play is underway with the start of the 2020 calendar year, so we head out to the Pac-12 to see if Colorado will continue to be a house of horrors for Oregon and if Vermont can close out its non-conference slate with a win.
Thursday College Basketball Odds & Picks
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Oregon at Colorado
- Spread: Colorado -1.5
- Over/Under: 138.5
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
The Colorado Buffaloes (11-2) are off to a fantastic start to the 2019-2020 season. They have won four games in a row including a 78-76 neutral court win over Dayton. However, they are only 6-6-1 against the spread including 2-4-1 at home.
No. 4 Oregon (11-2) has been even more impressive, winning their last five games including a true road win at Michigan, 71-70 in overtime. The Ducks are only 10-3 ATS including that outright win against the Wolverines.
History is on Colorado’s side, as they have won every home matchup against Oregon since joining the Pac-12 in 2012. However, in almost every one of those games (except 2013), the Ducks played Colorado after playing at Utah a few nights earlier.
This year, Oregon plays at Boulder prior to their battle with the Utes.
Both teams are strong defensively, with the Buffaloes ranking 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency and the Ducks ranking 63rd. However, Oregon is significantly better at defending the 3P, holding the opposition on average below 30%.
Oregon’s backcourt of Payton Pritchard (18.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 6.2 apg) and his high school teammate Chris Duarte (12.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg) are versatile scorers, both shooting over 38% from beyond the arc.
Colorado’s two weaknesses have been an inconsistent offense and their vulnerability against good shooting teams. The Buffaloes rank 283rd in 2P field goal percentage and allowed Northern Iowa to shoot a blistering 56% (14 of 26) from 3P in a 79-76 home loss.
I’m taking the Ducks to end the streak and finally win at Boulder on Thursday. Their balance on offense and defense combined with the 3-point shooting of Pritchard and Duarte will give head coach Dana Altman his first win at Colorado.
The Pick: Oregon +1.5
Vermont at Dartmouth
- Spread: Vermont -5.5
- Over/Under: 124
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
Dartmouth (7-7) has struggled recently after a strong start. The Big Green have lost three of their last four games and six of their past eight. They are just 5-7-1 ATS including 0-3 at home.
Vermont has escaped from a challenging non-conference schedule with a current 9-5 record. The Catamounts earned true road wins at Bucknell and St. John’s, as well as a close loss at Virginia. They are 7-6 ATS but have covered three of their last four games.
The Catamounts have struggled from 3P range for most of the season after ranking 93rd in the country last year. However, they have recently found the touch from deep, shooting 45.2% (19 of 42) from 3P in their past two games.
Meanwhile, Dartmouth’s offense has really struggled, ranking 277th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 268th in 3P%, and 323rd in free throw shooting. They have also greatly benefitted from some good fortune, with teams only making free throws against the Big Green at an abysmal 57.2% rate (worst in the country).
Vermont’s interior defense is suffocating, allowing opponents to shoot just 40.2% from inside the arc, fifth-best in the nation.
I’m taking the hot shooting of Vermont to win comfortably at Dartmouth, in their last non-conference game before hosting Stony Brook on Jan. 8.
The Pick: Vermont -5.5