College Basketball Odds, Pick for UConn vs Creighton

Once expected to be one of the best conference title chases in college hoops, the race to the top of the Big East has turned anti-climactic.

The Connecticut Huskies have hit the gas, looking as strong as ever while winning 14 straight games. The Huskies hold a safe three-game lead in the conference and have their eyes on loftier goals — like the top seed in March and another national title.

The Creighton Bluejays should act as more than just a speed bump in the road for UConn, having won ten of their last thirteen games and boasting a ton of offensive firepower.

Tuesday's duel in Omaha doesn't quite have the stakes we'd hoped it would earlier in the season. Still, it sets up as a great matchup.

Here's college basketball odds and a pick for UConn vs. Creighton.

If, for any reason, you weren't a believer in UConn before this weekend, you're surely on board now.

In the biggest game of the Big East schedule so far, the Huskies welcomed a red-hot Marquette team to a packed, raucous arena in Hartford. The Golden Eagles entered on an eight-game winning streak, looking to make the race for the Big East title competitive.

Instead, Connecticut wiped the floor. UConn won the final ten minutes of the first half 24-8, then extended a lead as big as 29 points. The Huskies bullied Marquette, especially on the glass, where UConn grabbed more of its misses than Marquette's defense could.

The natural inclination is to compare this Connecticut team to last season's roster that won the national title. Last year, on this date, UConn scored only 53 points in a road loss (at Creighton) to sit just 8-7 in conference play. This season, the Huskies have the nation's longest winning streak at 14 games and have all but locked up the Big East title.

Last year's Huskies had the depth and firepower to get hot when it counted. This season, UConn is already blazing hot in mid-February.

Time will tell if they can sustain this level of play. But it's certainly possible with the talent at the top of the roster.

The most notable difference is Donovan Clingan, performing like a legitimate superstar at the center spot. Many, myself included, thought he was already better than All-Big East big man Adama Sanogo last season. Given the lion's share of the minutes inside this year, he's been the country's best big man not named Zach Edey. UConn's sole conference loss came with Clingan sidelined due to injury.

With him healthy and playing his best, Connecticut's guards have more opportunity to play pressure defense, knowing there's a dominant rim protector behind. Meanwhile, Clingan affords those guards so much more driving and shooting space offensively.

While UConn's win on Saturday was undoubtedly more notable, Creighton's Saturday performance was also eye-opening.

The Bluejays were 2.5-point favorites but blew Butler out on the road by 22 points.

Given Creighton's love of the deep ball, you'd think they'd have shot the lights out to win so dominantly in a brutal road environment. But that wasn't the case. Creighton had a mediocre day from beyond the arc and still picked the Bulldogs apart, winning the second half 45-22.

Creighton has shown a consistent game plan all season. The Bluejays want their shooters to shoot, ranking top ten nationally in 3-point rate. If you run them off the 3-point line, Creighton's goal is to get a high-value look inside the arc. The Bluejays don't earn trips to the foul line and rank outside the top 300 in the country in percentage of shots coming at the rim, yet shoot a top ten percentage on their rim looks. Greg McDermott's team uses penetration with a plan in place. A paint touch leads to a dunk, layup, or kick out for a 3.

The lack of free throw attempts, an indifference to crashing the offensive glass, and the nation's single worst defense in forcing turnovers combine to limit easy or extra scoring chances. Creighton bets they can beat you with 3s and dunks, and there's no backup plan.

It's been a pretty safe bet, especially considering how diligent the Bluejays are at running teams off the 3-point line. Creighton allows 3-point attempts at the 3rd lowest rate nationally. McDermott's willing to forego steals, freebies, and putbacks, simply knowing that if his guys can get up a ton of clean looks from deep but you can't, the odds are in his favor.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

The initial gut reaction to Saturday's UConn win felt like handing them a second straight national title.

We all know, however, that isn't how the world works.

Looking back into the recent past, teams in the same spot struggled in the following game. Top ten teams who just beat a fellow top ten squad by 15 or more points, then travel to play another ranked opponent on the road, are just 4-7 straight up, with the four wins coming by an average margin of only 3.8 points.

You may point out that Creighton is also coming off a big win, though not of the same magnitude. I'd counter that recent shooting splits also favor the Bluejays. In UConn's last five games, the Huskies have hit 42% from long range and faced just 27% shooting from deep. Meanwhile, in Creighton's last five outings, the Bluejays have hit 38.5% from long range yet faced a regression-ready 42%.

Betting against UConn in this spot is like splitting aces at the blackjack table. It's not a guaranteed winner, but by the book, it's the smart play.

Pick: Creighton +3 (Play to +2)