Utah State vs Colorado State Odds & Prediction: Why to Bet the Rams

It's time to take a look at the Utah State vs. Colorado State odds and make a prediction for Saturday's Mountain West matchup.

For Colorado State, it was a tale of two halves Tuesday night.

After jumping out to a 44-30 halftime lead at San Diego State, it was outscored 41-11 in the second half. With the loss, the Rams fell to 19-6 overall and 7-5 in the Mountain West. They are now two games back of Utah State, who they will host Saturday.

On Wednesday night, four Aggies reached double figures as Utah State rallied for an 84-76 victory at Wyoming. With the victory, it improved to 21-4 on the year. It was Utah State's second straight victory since losing at home to Nevada. That remains the Aggies' lone home loss on the year, and home court has been extremely important in the Mountain West this season.

The top seven teams in the Mountain West are a combined 77-11 at home this season, with Colorado State being 13-1. However, Utah State is 6-3 on the road this season and 9-6 in conference games over the last two seasons. Something will have to give in this matchup.

Home-court advantage has already come into play in this matchup, with Utah State winning the first meeting 77-72 at home. This time around, the oddsmakers favor Colorado State at home.

Let's dive into this Mountain West matchup.

Forward Great Osobor has been a stalwart for the Aggies this season, averaging 18 points and nine rebounds per game while shooting 58% from the field. However, his production has slowed down a bit of late. In four games this month, Osobor is averaging 12 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. Fortunately for the Aggies, they have a lot of depth to pick up the slack.

Point guard Darius Brown II is averaging 11.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game this season. He has increased his production to 21 points, 8.5 rebounds and five assists over the past two games and has drained seven 3s as well. Brown did not have a turnover in the win over Wyoming on Wednesday, and ranks sixth in the nation in both assists per game and assist-to-turnover ratio.

Freshman guard Mason Falslev has really came on of late, scoring at least 15 points in three of his past four games, including 25 against Boise State. Meanwhile senior guard Ian Martinez is averaging 13.5 points and shooting 40% from 3 on the year.

Utah State ranks 11th in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage (57.7%) and 35th in adjusted offensive efficiency. It has been the most efficient offense in the Mountain West in conference play.

Against Colorado State, it will have an edge on the glass. Utah State outrebounds its opponents by 5.3 rebounds per game and ranks 30th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. It was +12 on the glass in the first meeting between the two in Logan.

Utah State is 54th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but it really excels defending the perimeter. It ranks 11th in the nation in opponent 3-point percentage (29.1%) and held Colorado State to 8-of-24 from beyond the arc in the first meeting.

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Point guard Isaiah Stevens is the engine of Colorado State's offense. The fifth-year senior is averaging 16.1 points and 7.4 assists (fourth in the nation) while shooting a career-high 48% from the field and 46% from distance. On Thursday, Stevens was named to the Naismith Midseason Team as one of the nation's top 30 players.

In addition to Stevens, the Rams have three other double-digit scorers in guard Nique Clifford and forwards Joel Scott and Patrick Cartier. Clifford and Cartier join Stevens as 40% 3-point shooters, but it was Josiah Strong who provided an unexpected boost Tuesday night. A 28% 3-point shooter on the year, Strong knocked down 3-of-7 3s and led the Rams with 14 points against San Diego State.

Colorado State is a solid 3-point shooting team at 36.3% on the year, but it particularly makes its living inside the arc. The Rams make 58% of their 2s and are seventh in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage while ranking 14th in effective field goal percentage. As a whole, they are 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency.

The main area Colorado State struggles offensively is on the glass, as it is 338th in offensive rebounding percentage. The Rams don't have a lot of size, with no players in their rotation standing taller than 6 feet, 8 inches. Clifford leads the team at seven rebounds per game.

However, the lack of size has not hurt Colorado State defensively this season. The Rams are 50th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, but in conference play, they are third in the Mountain West. They are allowing just 62.6 points per game at home this season and 68.5 per game in Mountain West games.

Utah State and Colorado State have two of the top offenses in the Mountain West, so I considered targeting the total. However, the first meeting had 149 points, which would go under this line. Additionally, Colorado State can slow a game down defensively, as it forces opponents to use 19 seconds per offensive possession.

Speaking of totals, 70 is a key number to keep in mind. Utah State is 19-1 this season when it scores at least 70 points this season and just 2-3 when it does not. It got there in the first meeting by going 20-of-23 at the free-throw line.

Meanwhile, Colorado State went 4-of-11 at the stripe in a game it lost by five. Colorado State shoots 76.5% from the free-throw line as a team so I expect positive regression there, and with a few less fouls (it committed 21), it may have the edge at the line this time around time.

Additionally, the Rams are one of the few teams that has been able to disrupt Brown this season, forcing him into five turnovers as he shot just 2-of-11 from the field.

Stevens had a big game in the loss — 21 points, eight assists and four 3s — and he has played well against the Aggies in his career, averaging 16.9 points and 5.2 assists in 10 career meetings.

I like Stevens to win the guard matchup against Brown once again. Combined with Colorado State's stingy defense at home, I like the Rams to pull out a close win in Fort Collins.

Pick: Colorado State -4.5 (Play to -5.5)

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