NCAAB Odds, Pick for Villanova vs Marquette

The preseason Big East favorite Marquette Golden Eagles have lost consecutive conference games, including dropping a home game to Butler.

Villanova is playing good ball, winning five of six, including a tough conference road win over Creighton. Even better, point guard Justin Moore suited up last time out against DePaul, so the Wildcats are healthy again.

It’s tough to pick a side in this game, as there are a lot of converging factors. But I don't mind playing the total.

The Wildcats are playing like your typical Wildcat team.

Offensively: Plodding and perimeter-oriented with plenty of ball-screen and post-up sets.

Defensively: Compact but lengthy and tough on the interior.

In Moore’s absence, de-facto center Eric Dixon has become a near-superstar. He’s scored in double digits in five straight games, including 32 against Creighton and 24 against DePaul. Before that, he dropped 34 against North Carolina in an overtime win.

He’s done it all while being Villanova’s best interior post-up defender (.61 PPP allowed, 81st percentile) for the nation’s 37th-best 2-point defense (45%).

Moore only played 23 minutes against DePaul in his return from injury, recording six shots and dishing out three dimes. There’s no need to push him against the lowly Blue Demons, but I wonder if he’s 100%.

The Wildcats are playing well – exceeding expectations, even – but I think the key to unlocking their potential is getting more on the wing.

TJ Bamba is shooting well from 3 (35%) but struggling on drives (39% from 2). Tyler Burton is struggling in all spot-up situations (.67 PPP, 18th percentile). Hakim Hart has been excellent offensively (58% true-shooting), and Mark Armstrong has been a stud defensively (leads the team in DBPR), so I’d love to see extra minutes for either.

Losing a tough road game in a bad schematic matchup against an upstart Seton Hall team is fine.

Losing a bounce-back game at home in the next matchup to Butler is very bad.

But what can you do when you shoot 5-for-31 from 3 (16%) while the opponent shoots 10-for-22 (45%)? That’s just typical college hoops shooting variance.

For what it’s worth, ShotQuality graded both games as analytical Marquette wins based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed, meaning the losses are likely nothing more than bad luck.

That said, I’m a tad worried about the Eagles, mainly on the offensive end.

Since the loss to Providence, Marquette’s Offensive Efficiency numbers have fallen off a cliff. Even worse, the Golden Eagles’ ball-screen metrics have fallen off a cliff, which is so surprising for Shaka Smart’s innovative and explosive pick-and-roll offense spearheaded by the three-headed monster of Tyler Kolek, Oso Ighodaro and Kam Jones.

Scoring only .74 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP against Seton Hall is fine because the Pirates are an elite ball-screen defense. Scoring only .67 against Creighton and .65 against Providence is concerning.

Both games between these two stayed under the closing total. Three of the past four matchups have stayed under.

I expect more of the same on Monday.

Villanova’s ball-screen defense is well above the D-I average, which is enormous against Shaka’s offense. Considering the Golden Eagles are struggling to generate points against anyone in those sets, I feel good about the Wildcats’ defense in this matchup.

When the ball screens aren’t working, the Golden Eagles use plenty of hand-off perimeter sets to open Kolek and Jones from deep. However, the Cats have defended those sets excellently, allowing only .73 PPP (71st percentile).

Villanova is lengthy on the wing and tough on the interior, with plenty of wing options to switch on Kolek, Jones and Co. I think those Cats can stick with their man and defend tough against this complex and explosive offense.

On the other end of the court, the Golden Eagles rank above average in ball-screen PPP allowed and post-up PPP allowed, so they should effectively counter Moore-Dixon two-man sets.

Both squads allow plenty of 3s, which is concerning against two 3-point-heavy squads. But I love how the two defenses match up aside from that, and that’s resulted in lower-scoring Villanova-Marquette games recently.

Besides, the Golden Eagles aren’t playing great offense, and the Wildcats play at an uber-slow pace. That seems like a good formula for an under.

Projections also like the under. EvanMiya pegs this total at only 140. The same goes for KenPom. BartTorvik has the number down at 137.

Pick: Under 143 (Play to 140)