Washington vs Colorado Odds, Pick for Friday

Below, we have Washington vs Colorado odds and a pick for Friday.

While some teams have one final random non-conference game scheduled, the Pac-12 moves into its swan song schedule this week.

For Washington (and nine other schools), that means the merciful end of the dreaded mountain road trip. Playing at altitude at Colorado and Utah back-to-back is often devastating for visiting teams, and the Huskies face the daunting first leg of it on Friday night.

Mike Hopkins is off to his second straight 8-3 start to a campaign. However, Washington hopes this year’s league slate delivers more victories than last year’s 8-12 disappointment.

Colorado enters with high hopes, off to a 9-2 start and lurking right on the edge of both human and computer top-25 rankings. Tad Boyle has never made the second weekend of the Big Dance while in Boulder, but this year’s squad has that kind of upside.

While Washington has a top-75 defense, per KenPom, for the second straight year, it's done so with a massive philosophical shift. A branch on the Jim Boeheim tree, Hopkins has largely been a 2-3 zone coach before this season.

This year, though, Washington is going man-to-man on 97.7% of possessions, per Synergy. The Huskies’ defensive rebounding has improved drastically, and their overall size in the paint has made it difficult to score inside.

Most of the attention has been paid to the man-to-man switch, but if Washington is to return to the NCAA tournament, it'll be via an improved offense – by far the best unit of Hopkins’ tenure in Seattle.

Hopkins added two high-major pure point guards from the portal in Sahvir Wheeler (Kentucky) and Paul Mulcahy (Rutgers). That duo has amped up Washington’s ball movement, with both ranking in the top 150 nationally in assist rate, per KenPom (Wheeler is 18th). Having two high-level ball-handlers also allows Hopkins to stagger the two.

As a result, Washington has by far the highest assist rate of Hopkins’ career at 55.2% (87th nationally). The previous high was 51.3% in 2019-20, good for 184th in the country.

That unselfishness has generated significantly better shots for the Huskies, especially star scorer Keion Brooks Jr. (another Kentucky defector).

Per ShotQuality, Washington ranks 52nd in offensive shot quality. That's a massive upgrade compared to 2023 (180th) and 2022 (154th).

One roster note: Big man Franck Kepnang, who's been a paint monster on both ends, missed the Huskies’ last game before Christmas. He suffered a knee injury late against Seattle on Dec. 17 and didn't return to that game. He's returning from a torn ACL in December 2022, so the team could be careful with him.

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Speaking of offense, Colorado has become a buzzsaw on that end. Per Sports Reference, the Buffs rank first in the entire country in field goal percentage, buoyed by lights-out 40.7% shooting from beyond the arc.

Colorado is also ninth in free-throw percentage at 78.9%.

Context matters, though. The Buffaloes have faced just one top-75 defense all year (Florida State, 60th), and they lost that game, tallying just 0.87 points per possession. It would stand to reason that CU’s offense is slightly overrated due to the very weak group of defenses faced.

Still, lead guard KJ Simpson has been playing at a bona fide All-American level. He's been on fire from everywhere while posting the best assist-to-turnover ratio of his career. Tristan da Silva and Julian Hammond III have provided plenty of supplemental shooting, as well.

Colorado has a high floor offensively because of its offensive rebounding. Eddie Lampkin Jr. has been a one-man wrecking crew, though frontcourt compatriots J’Vonne Hadley and Luke O’Brien have chased down their fair share of offensive boards, as well.

So, even if Colorado has a cold shooting night, its physicality on the glass should provide frequent second chances.

Of note, the altitude edge has been real for the Buffaloes. Over the last five seasons, they're 47-37-4 against the spread (56.0%) with a +2.1 average cover margin.

The market certainly respects the advantage of playing in Boulder, but the results suggest that it's not being fully captured. That's continued into this year, as CU is 6-1 ATS with a +4.4 average cover margin.

Colorado has a roster question of its own, as five-star freshman Cody Williams has missed three straight games. However, the Buffs have been just fine without him, including blitzing Miami (FL) on a neutral floor.

Kepnang’s status is paramount. Per CBB Analytics, the Huskies are 10.6 points better per 100 possessions when he plays. Reserve big men Braxton Meah and Wilhelm Breidenbach just don't impact the game in the same way.

Without knowing Kepnang’s status, it's difficult to give a definitive opinion here. However, even if he plays, he'll likely be limited by the knee issue, bolstering Colorado’s case.

Another handicapping factor: This is Washington’s first road trip. The Huskies played one “away” game, at mid-major Seattle, but that wasn't on Seattle’s campus – it was in the cavernous Climate Pledge Arena, home of the NHL’s Seattle Kraken.

This facet is mitigated somewhat by Washington being one of the most experienced teams in the country, but it's still noteworthy.

Ultimately, the strength of Colorado’s home court — and Kepnang’s shaky status — tilts this one towards the host Buffaloes. Laying double-digit points in a conference opener is dicey, but this Colorado offense is potent enough to cover a larger number.

Pick: Colorado -9 (Play to -10)

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