Why Alabama Championship Odds are Mispriced: Where Value Lies

Why Alabama Championship Odds are Mispriced: Where Value Lies article feature image

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Alabama has made the Final Four for the first time in program history and they're mispriced in the market.

That's according to our head of data analytics Sean Koerner, who has developed an algorithm for every team and matchup so far this tournament.

Alabama's championship odds are slated at +1300 at FanDuel and +1600 at DraftKings. Alabama has the same odds as NC State to win it all despite preseason positions that were far more disparate.

That's where the most value comes into play, according to Koerner.

Our algorithms project Alabama at just +714 to win it all, giving them a roughly 12% chance of getting past the UConn Huskies on Saturday in the Final Four, then the winner of NC State and Purdue.

Meanwhile, the market has them slated at +1600 best odds at DraftKings, as aforementioned. That disparity provides over 6% in expected value. That means if you make similar wagers over the long run, you can expect to make 6 cents for every dollar wagered.

Betting exclusively on positive expected value wagers is how you make money sports betting in the longterm.

Meanwhile, Alabama are massive, +11.5 underdogs on account of UConn's tear through this tournament, where they've destroyed every single competitor by double digits. In fact, over the last two tournaments, the Huskies haven't had a single digit game — let alone lost.

Still, Koerner slates this matchup at Alabama +5.5 as the fair money odds. Of course, narrative has taken hold of the market, and it's retail's best bet for UConn to continue to roll.

The fair moneyline odds are +203, according to Koerner. You can get best market odds of +550 on Alabama at bet365. Those odds provide 17.6% in expected value.

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