UTSA vs. Texas St Odds & Betting Predictions - September 12, 2026

Want a 3 but steaming down, fine with 2.5, have them slight favorite. Also eyeing JVST but may get a 3 there

* 79 points in last year’s matchup and over 900 yards of total offense.  * Texas State got barbecued in the opener against Texas, allowing three plays of 40+ yards and 516 total yards.  * UTSA has the balance between Will Henderson III and McCown to keep teams honest. Once WH3 took over as the feature back at the end of last year this offense has averaged 42.4 ppg across their last five games. * Yes TSU got blasted 59-7 but they produced 349 total yards, 161 of which came on the ground. And 25 seconds between plays is still a top-30 tempo. UTSA has been known to play with tempo from time to time, but it’s predictated more game flow than anything. * It’s going to be 95 degrees at kickoff, likely near 110 at field level. I think these run defenses will wilt in the heat, and when these teams can it opens up the deep shots. Texas State was 12th in pass play of 30+ yards last year, and they have all the pieces back to do that here. And UTSA wasn’t far bethind with 23 pass plays of 30+ yards, 27th best.

Road Dogs in Even Matchups (***) Overall: 175-128-1,58% (ROI:24%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) #TSA

@Breese https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bboc-6th-gear-cfb-week-2/id1579379256?i=1000788608165

Full writeup coming soon to Action Network. Jeff Traylor is awful on the road. 10/12 losses L2, including 3 losses as a favorite, came away from Alamodome. Extreme heat is likely, disproportionately impacting defenses.

@Breese Best Bets 1 https://www.youtube.com/live/wFhTn9uArnI?is=ofLwmpPp8AKhpq3t