2019 College Football Rankings: AP Poll vs. Our Betting Power Ratings After Week 3

Credit:

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: J.K. Dobbins

Sep 15, 2019, 02:00 PM EDT
  • We're comparing our betting power ratings to the AP Top 25 Poll to see which teams are overvalued.
  • No marquee teams went down in Week 3, but there were a few surprising results that shook up our power ratings.

College football’s ranking system doesn’t make much sense in the modern age. The College Football Playoff rankings are the only thing that really matter, but we won’t get the first edition for another six weeks.

Here at The Action Network, we’re big on prognosticating, so we try to have a more forward-looking approach to our rankings — how a team will do in its next games, and what the point spread would be if two teams met. Not reflecting on past games and ranking teams based on wins and losses.

We’re comparing the AP Poll to our Vegas-style betting power ratings to see which teams are overvalued and undervalued after Week 3. We’ll update the results with the AP Top 25 Poll once it’s released on Sunday.

You can use the rating to create a point spread on a neutral field — just subtract the higher team’s rating from the lower-ranked one. We’ve included the Top 25 here, but power ratings for all 130 teams are available to EDGE members here.

2019 College Football Rankings: AP Poll vs. Power Ratings

  • Ohio State jumped into the top 4 as it continues to dismantle its lesser opponents. Clemson and Alabama are now tied for the top spot and would be 6-point favorites or more over anyone else on a neutral field.
  • Any combination of game between Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State would be a pick’em on a neutral field.
  • But after that, those three teams (plus LSU) would be a 6-point favorite over anyone else in the country not named Alabama or Clemson.
  • Florida, Mississippi State, Texas Tech and Iowa State were among the biggest losers from Saturday, each dropping at least five spots.
  • UCF, Nebraska, TCU and Kansas State were among the biggest winners after they all won on Saturday.
  • Despite losing to Alabama, South Carolina jumped 14 spots.
  • UMass is still definitively the worst team in the country, and would be a 2.5-point underdog to second-worst Akron on a neutral field.
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