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Alabama-LSU Betting Odds: How Has Line Shifted Since the Summer?

Oct 30, 2018 9:15 PM EDT
  • LSU and Alabama will meet in a top-5 showdown in Baton Rouge on Nov. 3.
  • BetOnline lists the Tide as a 14.5-point favorite.
  • Despite LSU exceeding expectations, this spread doesn't differ much from the lookahead lines posted in the summer.

Despite being ranked No. 4 in the AP Poll, LSU will be a double-digit home underdog to Alabama when the teams meet in Baton Rouge this Saturday.

BetOnline lists the Tide -14.5 for this SEC clash. It sat at -14 during the bye week for both teams, then came up to -14.5 on Sunday afternoon when the book re-released lines. Some sharp action hit it at -14.5, according to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, driving it down to Alabama -13.5.

This spread hasn’t moved much since the summer. South Point opened it Alabama -10 in May, and when Westgate released its Game of the Year lines in July, Bama was -14.


>> All odds as of 4 p.m. ET on Oct. 28. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.


After LSU’s win over Miami in Week 1, Westgate had Alabama -12.5 against the Tigers.

That’s a testament to the gap between the Tide and almost everyone else, because LSU has exceeded expectations. The Tigers have already hit their win total of 7 thanks to victories over Auburn, Miami, Mississippi State and Georgia.

Trouble is, some of the underlying metrics for LSU aren’t pretty. The offense ranks 60th in S&P+, and the Tigers have benefited from about seven points of turnover luck per game. That all contributes to this number staying relatively stagnant.

Oh, and Alabama blowing the doors off everyone. That’s a contributing factor, too.

Historical Context

LSU will be the 12th top-5 team since 2005 to be a home underdog. The previous 11 are 5-5-1 against the spread, per our Bet Labs database.

Six of those 11 games have involved either Alabama or LSU, including two matchups between the teams — 2005 and 2012.

The last game to fit this criteria came in 2016, when Clemson closed as a 1-point dog against Lamar Jackson and Louisville.

Will Suspensions Affect This Line?

Alabama is 8-0 against the first half spread this season, and despite continuing to raise the lines, oddsmakers just can’t totally keep up. The Tide have been utterly dominant before the break.

LSU linebacker and leading tackler Devin White will miss the first half against Alabama because of a targeting ejection on Saturday against Mississippi State.

This first-half line might be more than 10, despite Alabama only being -14 for the full game.

Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Saban and Ed Orgeron

Follow Steve Petrella on Twitter
@steve_petrella

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
-8.5
58.5
-11
61
-15
51.5
-15
49
-13.5
68
-14
69.5
-2
80
-2.5
84
54
-3
49
-2.5
-3
59
-4.5
56
-3
53.5
-6.5
52
61
-17
59.5
-17
57
-7
57.5
-7
52
-24
52.5
-24
55.5
-14
53.5
-13.5
58.5
-18
58
-17
51
-5.5
47
-4
-17
51
-17.5
51
60.5
-25
58.5
-26
41
-14
40.5
-13
47.5
-2
47.5
-3
-8
53.5
-11
54
44
-13.5
44
-11
68
-3
67.5
-2