NCAAF Odds, Pick for App State vs Georgia State

Georgia State hosts Appalachian State on Saturday afternoon at Center Parc Stadium for a Sun Belt Conference matchup on ESPN+.

The Panthers won six of their first seven games this season before dropping two straight to enter this contest at 6-3 overall and 3-3 in the SBC.

Meanwhile, the Mountaineers picked up wins over Southern Miss and Marshall to put themselves within one victory of bowl eligibility.

With the uncertainty surrounding James Madison's potential postseason eligibility, both programs are still in the running for a conference title, which should give us an excellent game in Atlanta.

After the 3-4 start, many folks were saying that head coach Shawn Clark was on the hot seat. However, Clark has the program back on track after the last two victories.

Those wins could not have come at a better time with the difficult stretch of SBC games remaining. App State finishes the year with a trip to James Madison and hosts Georgia Southern.

You also have to wonder if the Mountaineers were just unlucky after many close calls did not go their way. In the opening six games, all but one was decided in the closing seconds.

The key to any success offensively this season has been quarterback Joey Aguilar, who has racked up 23 touchdown passes to lead the Sun Belt and all Group of Five programs. In fact, only Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix and Shedeur Sanders have thrown for more scores.

In only its 14th season of football, things could not have gone much better for coach Shawn Elliott and his squad through seven games.

The school became bowl-eligible under Elliott for the fifth time in seven years. With the Panthers' win over Louisiana on Oct. 21, it was the earliest the program has ever achieved bowl eligibility.

Unfortunately for them, GSU was completely outmatched against JMU and Georgia Southern.

However, this still hasn’t stopped Marcus Carroll from putting up big numbers on the ground. On the year, Carroll ranks in the top 10 ofFBS in multiple categories, including rushing (third), rushing touchdowns (fifth) and all-purpose yards (sixth).

Once you add in the dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger, this can be a potent offense under Elliott.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Appalachian State and Georgia State match up statistically:

Appalachian State Offense vs. Georgia State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	90	40
Line Yards	27	50
Pass Success	15	116
Havoc	22	93
Finishing Drives	80	75
Quality Drives	26	79

Georgia State Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	91	113
Line Yards	101	129
Pass Success	48	58
Havoc	60	80
Finishing Drives	54	9
Quality Drives	83	69

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	81	105
PFF Coverage	38	125
Special Teams SP+	44	92
Middle 8	21	133
Seconds per Play	26.0 (49)	24.6 (25)
Rush Rate	54.2% (46)	58.5% (20)

If this game had been played a month ago, Georgia State clearly would have been the right side in this matchup, but I feel these two teams are heading in opposite directions on the season.

So, my best bet is to take Appalachian State on the moneyline at +110 odds. I would hold out until closer to kickoff to see if a +3 ever shows up in the market.

I mentioned how well Aguilar has played under center for App State, and he'll like this matchup against a weak GSU secondary. The Panthers rank outside the top 115 in the country in both Pass Success and PFF coverage grading. They also don't cause much Havoc, ranking 93rd in the FBS.

This is not good news against a Mountaineers offense that ranks 15th in Pass Success and 22nd in Havoc Allowed. Aguilar should have all the time he needs to pick apart this secondary unit.

I don't like the fact that an App State team that struggles to defend the run is going up against the run-heavy Panthers. However, the Mountaineers are in the top 10 in Finishing Drives on defense, which could be enough to win this one if they hold GSU to field goals instead of touchdowns.

With a clear advantage in special teams as well, I like Appalachian State to spring the upset win in Atlanta on Saturday.

Pick: Appalachian State ML +110 (Or +3 or Better) 

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